Re: [IRCA] The DX Crystal Ball

[ng0g@xxxxxxxxx]

Les,

Well thought out, good paper.  Thanks.

My crystal ball thinks that AM and maybe FM too, will die of terminal boredom.
As time goes by, with a few exceptions, it seems that there are only 4 or 5
stations cloned and repeated over and over again across the dial.

Steve
--
73 49 111 01001001


> This time of year inspires a lot of reflection on the past, and thoughts of
> the future too. I've just finished reading two books about the history of
> radio broadcasting in America, and that's lead me to speculate a bit
> on what may happen in the future to the AM band, how those changes
> will effect DXing.
> 
> So, with apologies, I invite you all to gaze into the "Crystal Ball" of DX 
> with me.
> Your view may be different than mine, and I'd be very interested in your
> thoughts about where we are all heading.
> 
> THE NEXT TEN YEARS
> ==========================================
> 
> The growth of satellite technology and alternative media (I-Pods) will mean 
> that traditional
> radio will continue to lose market share. Meanwhile, new technology like 
> Wi-Max
> will begin to put IP based radio receivers into "early adopter" status, at 
> least in the
> major metro markets.
> 
> These market forces will drive much of the talk radio programming that is on 
> AM
> now to the FM band. People seeking music will just have too many other 
> choices,
> and won't be willing to suffer mindless chatter from DJ's and annoying car 
> commercials
> just to listen to some tunes in the car.
> 
> As talk radio moves to the FM band, the AM band will become even more 
> fragmented
> than it is now. Rather than broadcasting, it will become the "narrowcast" 
> medium. New
> languages will appear, as stations choose to serve smaller ethnic 
> populations within
> their markets. Cities like Richmond may have Arabic stations on the AM band, 
> to serve
> a community of perhaps less than 5,000 people.
> 
> Other AM stations may become glorified TIS stations, promoting local 
> businesses or
> attractions,  but at much greater distances. 24 hour traffic and weather 
> information
> will become widespread in smaller markets, much like it is in the major
> markets today. Many will find the market just too fragmented to
> make money at all, and will go dark.
> 
> >From a DXing standpoint, the challenges will be many. While I think that 
> IBOC on AM
> will go the way of AM-Stereo, failing to find a market niche. Text based 
> traffic reports may
> catch on in some metro markets, overall the technology will fail to find an 
> audience on AM.
> But in the short term, we'll have to put up with a lot more of it. Given the 
> FCC's catering to
> business concerns, I expect we'll soon see IBOC at night as well.
> 
> But offsetting this problem will be that as more stations go dark, there 
> will be less inference
> on graveyard and regional channels. Unusual programming will also make it 
> easier to identify
> stations that are received. As the syndicated talk programming moves to FM, 
> the AM band
> will take on a lot more of the local character that it had in the past.
> 
> THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS
> =======================================
> 
> The growth of IP based radio will mean that even small, specialized 
> audiences can be more easily (and cheaply)
> served with other technology. "Broadcasting" in the current sense may well 
> be a relic by now. Internet
> access will be wireless and available virtually anywhere in the country, 
> much like cellular service today.
> 
> Handheld devices will allow the user to view video content, listen to 
> thousands of IP based radio stations,
> receive local traffic and weather updates, and communicate with others. 
> Rather than a lot of separate
> devices (cell phone, Ipod, radio), users will have fewer devices that do 
> more. And it will all be IP based.
> 
> Satellite radio with it's limited bandwidth will have peaked in it's market 
> acceptable around 2015, and
> will find itself struggling to remain profitable. The cellular phone 
> industry will also be facing a huge
> challenge from IP based wireless services, and will have declined greatly.
> 
> The FM band will have gone nearly 100% digital, with most of the content 
> being news, talk,
> and "narrowcast" programming. The AM band will still be mostly analog, 
> serving only the
> smallest of markets---most of the programming will be directed at elderly 
> users or TIS type
> functions.
> 
> There will also be a lot of growth in TIS stations operating across the 
> band. Nearly every construction project,
> housing development, etc. will operate low powered transmitters, as their 
> cost drops to very low levels. Only the
> large number of installed radios already out there will save the band from 
> being reassigned to other services.
> 
> For DX'ers, there will be very few targets out there. But with the reduced 
> interference, hobbyists will enjoy
> a kind of 2nd Golden Age of DXing. Clear channels will be "clear" again, 
> allowing coast to coast
> reception of these signals with the reduced inference. Software based radio 
> receivers will be inexpensive,
> allowing very powerful tools at low cost.
> 
> But as the second decade of the 21st century nears an end, it will be 
> obvious that AM radio is doomed.
> By 2030, the entire slice of spectrum will be reassigned for other users.
> 
> OTHER VIEWS
> ===============================
> 
> The thing about gazing into a crystal ball is that each person sees 
> something different. What does
> your crystal ball show about the future of the AM band, and DXing?
> 
> 73,
> 
> Les Rayburn, N1LF
> NRC/IRCA Broadcast Test Coordinator
> Please call anytime 24/7 if your transmitter
> will be off the air for maintenance.
> (205) 253-4867 
> 
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