Re: [Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)

["Rob de Santos" <rdesantos@xxxxxxxxx>]

A couple of more side points.  Comcast has said that by the end of this year,
20% of their systems nationwide will be all-digital.  

Comcast is the nation's largest cable/satellite company by number of subscribers
and has an approximate 22% market share (there are about 113 million TV owning
households in the USA - haven't seen the Nielsen number lately).  That means the
24.4 million "customers" represent households with about 66 million Americans. 

--
-Rob de Santos

-----Original Message-----
From: Rob de Santos [mailto:rdesantos@xxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 12:48 PM
To: 'Shortwave programming discussion'
Subject: Re: [Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC
Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)

Here's where they got the numbers:

Total subscribers:  24.4 million.

69% of that is 16.8 million.

43.5% of 24.4 million is 10.6 million.

The numbers aren't added; they are inclusive.  Basic subscribers includes
everyone as you can't have digital service if you don't take at least the basic
channels; you can't have DVR or HD service if you don't take digital.  Basic
numbers include both analog and digital subscribers.  

The decay rate works this way:  Lost this quarter to analog are those who
dropped them altogether (417,000) plus those who converted from analog to
digital (147,000) for a total of 564,000.   The number left on analog is the
total (24.4 million) minus those on digital now (16.8 million) or 7.6 million.
7.6 million divided by .564 million is 13.4 quarters worth of decline or about
3.5 years.  2008 4th quarter plus 3.5 years is 2012 first quarter.  So, they are
out of analog subscribers by the end of 2011 assuming linear decline.   

Now, I agree with Rich that the substitution curve isn't linear (I said as much
in my post).  However, the numbers will decline by 2011 to the point where there
aren't enough analog subscribers left to make it worth supporting.  Further, as
Joe Buch pointed out, by regulatory fiat, analog service sunsets in 2012 anyway.


Hope that helps.  

--
-Rob de Santos


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