[Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)
[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)



Comcast reported the numbers throwing around percentages willy-nilly.

I read the press release and came up with the following:

Basic subscribers:  24.4 million (down 147,000 from prior quarter)

Digital (but not advanced) subscribers:  9.381 million (56% of 16.752)

Advanced subscribers:  7.370 million (44% of 16.752)

--combined digital non-advanced and advanced were up 417,000 over prior quarter

Comcast has a total of (24.4+16.8) = 41.2 million cable subscribers

--set top boxes number doesn't line up since some digital subscribers
have more than one digital set-top box

Not sure I follow Rob's logic regarding analog (basic) attrition.
With the digital TV transition Comcast plans to aggressively promote
Basic cable to current OTA (over-the-airwaves) TV users, so that will
- over the short term - boost the basic vs digital ratio.

I haven't looked at demand substitution assumptions for analog vs.
digital cable to sort out when the analog market share reaches a low,
near-zero asymptote.  While studies have shown that demand
substitution for a variety of technology products -- the traditional
"S" or "Fischer-Pry" curve -- is happening quicker as technologies
advance (e.g. DVD vs VCR, CD vs LP/Cassette), I haven't read
prognostications regarding analog cable.

Comcast acknowledges that, as the incumbent provider, it expects to
lose share to other TV alternatives (phone company FTTH [e.g. Verizon
FiOS], satellite TV, web-delivered TV [not specifically Internet
Protocol-delivered TV]))

Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA  USA



On Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 11:10 AM, Kevin Anderson <k9iua@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Rob,
> Your percentages (if they are yours) don't add up.  I add up a total of 51.806 million Comcast cable TV customers.  The analog (basic) only customers would be 47 percent of the total.  While less than half, it is still close to half.  A quarterly loss of only 147,000 is still only a loss of 0.6 of 1 percent of the basic subscription rate.  I don't consider that to be that rapid of a loss.  Losing 600,000 in one year (four times the quarterly loss) is still not that huge of a drop.  Although a loss is a loss as trends go.
>
_______________________________________________
Swprograms mailing list
Swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/swprograms

To unsubscribe:  Send an E-mail to  swprograms-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?subject=unsubscribe, or visit the URL shown above.