[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
[Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)
- Subject: [Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)
- From: "Richard Cuff" <rdcuff@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:59:48 -0400
- Authentication-results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of swprograms-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx designates 72.14.176.152 as permitted sender) smtp.mail=swprograms-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; dkim=neutral (body hash did not verify) header.i=@xxxxxxxxx
- Dkim-signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:received:received:message-id:date:from:to :subject:mime-version:content-type:content-transfer-encoding :content-disposition; bh=8Q69HlbsKjRb1TENYWwJcv6pwcg7qx7Kb7WWKOjaNXA=; b=scIIPq4mQ9osUWpPWnm7KVakfCHM+U7se/Sgi+wEfpMty9JJAKn6c+kFVdtKniFa8D wurlxTaPAUWRKY7NgzT5tZkC1iBV+Kcu5JY3M/ySe5YeiItp7X8GM41mLa0mFM/wmfva vJXo3qLigvSxE1khprw+CcjbDp8zfKdgZYIJc=
- Domainkey-signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=message-id:date:from:to:subject:mime-version:content-type :content-transfer-encoding:content-disposition; b=RwDk81gZEC72NdWYUgF2aHIQgkX3FRS0lGVBsNzNiNG40Jx5qk7MOLg9HHJdz5M0Cv /mWdb0iaDK+cKuxhXogAwAvC7yX4H4WvmS9fw7eKUqE3dQvSBG+Qgm9kC0r6CnchHHah EkuWKzXMSwE+hFRt13PyRYu++ymz3CgF7ORc4=
Comcast reported the numbers throwing around percentages willy-nilly.
I read the press release and came up with the following:
Basic subscribers: 24.4 million (down 147,000 from prior quarter)
Digital (but not advanced) subscribers: 9.381 million (56% of 16.752)
Advanced subscribers: 7.370 million (44% of 16.752)
--combined digital non-advanced and advanced were up 417,000 over prior quarter
Comcast has a total of (24.4+16.8) = 41.2 million cable subscribers
--set top boxes number doesn't line up since some digital subscribers
have more than one digital set-top box
Not sure I follow Rob's logic regarding analog (basic) attrition.
With the digital TV transition Comcast plans to aggressively promote
Basic cable to current OTA (over-the-airwaves) TV users, so that will
- over the short term - boost the basic vs digital ratio.
I haven't looked at demand substitution assumptions for analog vs.
digital cable to sort out when the analog market share reaches a low,
near-zero asymptote. While studies have shown that demand
substitution for a variety of technology products -- the traditional
"S" or "Fischer-Pry" curve -- is happening quicker as technologies
advance (e.g. DVD vs VCR, CD vs LP/Cassette), I haven't read
prognostications regarding analog cable.
Comcast acknowledges that, as the incumbent provider, it expects to
lose share to other TV alternatives (phone company FTTH [e.g. Verizon
FiOS], satellite TV, web-delivered TV [not specifically Internet
Protocol-delivered TV]))
Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA USA
On Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 11:10 AM, Kevin Anderson <k9iua@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Rob,
> Your percentages (if they are yours) don't add up. I add up a total of 51.806 million Comcast cable TV customers. The analog (basic) only customers would be 47 percent of the total. While less than half, it is still close to half. A quarterly loss of only 147,000 is still only a loss of 0.6 of 1 percent of the basic subscription rate. I don't consider that to be that rapid of a loss. Losing 600,000 in one year (four times the quarterly loss) is still not that huge of a drop. Although a loss is a loss as trends go.
>
_______________________________________________
Swprograms mailing list
Swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/swprograms
To unsubscribe: Send an E-mail to swprograms-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?subject=unsubscribe, or visit the URL shown above.