Re: [Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)

["Rob de Santos" <rdesantos@xxxxxxxxx>]

Here's where they got the numbers:

Total subscribers:  24.4 million.

69% of that is 16.8 million.

43.5% of 24.4 million is 10.6 million.

The numbers aren't added; they are inclusive.  Basic subscribers includes
everyone as you can't have digital service if you don't take at least the basic
channels; you can't have DVR or HD service if you don't take digital.  Basic
numbers include both analog and digital subscribers.  

The decay rate works this way:  Lost this quarter to analog are those who
dropped them altogether (417,000) plus those who converted from analog to
digital (147,000) for a total of 564,000.   The number left on analog is the
total (24.4 million) minus those on digital now (16.8 million) or 7.6 million.
7.6 million divided by .564 million is 13.4 quarters worth of decline or about
3.5 years.  2008 4th quarter plus 3.5 years is 2012 first quarter.  So, they are
out of analog subscribers by the end of 2011 assuming linear decline.   

Now, I agree with Rich that the substitution curve isn't linear (I said as much
in my post).  However, the numbers will decline by 2011 to the point where there
aren't enough analog subscribers left to make it worth supporting.  Further, as
Joe Buch pointed out, by regulatory fiat, analog service sunsets in 2012 anyway.


Hope that helps.  

--
-Rob de Santos

-----Original Message-----
From: Richard Cuff [mailto:rdcuff@xxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 12:00 PM
To: k9iua@xxxxxxxxx; Shortwave programming discussion
Subject: [Swprograms] OT: Analog vs Digital cable TV (was: Re: OT: Re: BBC
Newscast Shifts Lineup on U.S. Public TV Stations)

Comcast reported the numbers throwing around percentages willy-nilly.

I read the press release and came up with the following:

Basic subscribers:  24.4 million (down 147,000 from prior quarter)

Digital (but not advanced) subscribers:  9.381 million (56% of 16.752)

Advanced subscribers:  7.370 million (44% of 16.752)

--combined digital non-advanced and advanced were up 417,000 over prior quarter

Comcast has a total of (24.4+16.8) = 41.2 million cable subscribers

--set top boxes number doesn't line up since some digital subscribers
have more than one digital set-top box

Not sure I follow Rob's logic regarding analog (basic) attrition.
With the digital TV transition Comcast plans to aggressively promote
Basic cable to current OTA (over-the-airwaves) TV users, so that will
- over the short term - boost the basic vs digital ratio.

I haven't looked at demand substitution assumptions for analog vs.
digital cable to sort out when the analog market share reaches a low,
near-zero asymptote.  While studies have shown that demand
substitution for a variety of technology products -- the traditional
"S" or "Fischer-Pry" curve -- is happening quicker as technologies
advance (e.g. DVD vs VCR, CD vs LP/Cassette), I haven't read
prognostications regarding analog cable.

Comcast acknowledges that, as the incumbent provider, it expects to
lose share to other TV alternatives (phone company FTTH [e.g. Verizon
FiOS], satellite TV, web-delivered TV [not specifically Internet
Protocol-delivered TV]))

Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA  USA



On Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 11:10 AM, Kevin Anderson <k9iua@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Rob,
> Your percentages (if they are yours) don't add up.  I add up a total of 51.806
million Comcast cable TV customers.  The analog (basic) only customers would be
47 percent of the total.  While less than half, it is still close to half.  A
quarterly loss of only 147,000 is still only a loss of 0.6 of 1 percent of the
basic subscription rate.  I don't consider that to be that rapid of a loss.
Losing 600,000 in one year (four times the quarterly loss) is still not that
huge of a drop.  Although a loss is a loss as trends go.
>
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