Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America

["Scott Royall" <royall@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

THANK YOU. Sheesh.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: swprograms-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:swprograms-bounces@hard-core-
> dx.com] On Behalf Of Rob de Santos
> Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2008 7:31 PM
> To: 'Shortwave programming discussion'
> Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America
>
> My problem with all this doom and gloom is that it ignores history.  Yes,
> societies succeed and fail (but others, at the same time, were doing just
fine,
> thank you).  Yes, sometimes things take a step backward before they go
forward.
> Economic crises occur because humans sometimes make mistakes or see their
> situation in negative economic terms, whether it is or isn't.  And yes, we
have
> the capability to destroy ourselves if we so choose.  (And have since way
before
> July, 1945.)  Yes, disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes happen.
(Hmm,
> maybe I should write a book on the "Coming Earthquake in California".  Oh,
> sorry, been done.)
>
> What it misses is that technology development and knowledge accelerates.
> Nevertheless, predictions of the end appear every time there is some sort
of
> domestic or international crisis.  In my not quite half century I've heard
it at
> least a dozen times. About every 4 years, I think.  I imagine if we go
back to
> 1961, 1939, 1929, 1914, etc. we could find many more examples.  The
probability
> of the human race wiping itself out is not zero.  It's also not one or
anywhere
> close to it.
>
> Economic demand will make alternate sources of energy used and workable if
oil
> ceases to be available.  Will there be societal disruption as some jobs
are
> created while others disappear?  Yep.  Will new technology shift demand to
new
> products from old ones?  Yep.  (Ask owners of conventional phone lines...
just a
> few years ago there were dire predictions of economic disaster if we
didn't
> change the telephone systems because we were running out of phone numbers
due to
> computers and fax machines.  Now those lines are freeing up so fast they
can't
> be sold.)
>
> So, nothing that has happened in the past year (high oil prices, natural
> disasters, financial crises) is new.  It has happened before and will
again.
> So, unless an external event such as an asteroid hit occurs or the Gospel
> huxters prove correct and a God gets even with us, human society will
still be
> here tomorrow.  Whether you, or I, or our shortwave radios are here or
not.
>
> --
> -Rob de Santos
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Scott Royall [mailto:royall@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2008 7:08 PM
> To: k9iua@xxxxxxxxx; 'Shortwave programming discussion'
> Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America as
ofthe
> B-08 schedule change
>
> Yes Kevin, I pretty much knew what you were thinking. Notice that I am not
> really dismissing your scenario, because such thinking has been part of
> humanity since we crawled down from the trees. My own belief is that such
> scenarios come from the same part of our brains that manufactures
religions.
> It's as if we can't accept that we are worthy in our own right to be the
> dominant species. We keep expecting the other giant shoe to drop on us.
>
> One of the problems I have with such dire scenarios is that they don't
ever
> follow through to the logical conclusion. Why would a downward spiral stop
> with 1920 technology? Of course it wouldn't, because it's going to build
up
> momentum. there is no way for 1920s technology to support six billion
people
> so there would be an inevitable mass die-off, collapsing governments to
> little more than city-states. Do I need to tell you what that would do for
> metal prices? The ability to produce would quickly evaporate, and I've
> already seen a report of a tower being stolen for its metal. In your
> nightmare scenario, nobody would be inclined to broadcast to other states;
> the far more likely response would be to nuke those perceived as threats.
> That would thereby complete our slide to the Dark Ages.
>
> The drawback of any nightmare scenario is the ignorance of the fact that
the
> Dark Ages was the last era where we had technology that individuals could
> maintain completely independently. That's why it's the only honestly
likely
> stop to any full-scale global collapse.  As I see it, we're going up a
steep
> and slippery road with the Dark Ages in our mirror. That's where we'll end
> up again if we start seriously sliding.
>
> As a post-script to the above, I'm writing this in dying light. My house
> still doesn't have main power after hurricane Ike. Would you like to guess
> which devices are still going? Yes, the battery-powered digital stuff.  I
do
> have enough of a generator to keep them fed, but their analog counterparts
> don't do enough to justify charging them. Of course, this is not your
> nightmare scenario, but I find it telling.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Swprograms mailing list
> Swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/swprograms
>
> To unsubscribe:  Send an E-mail to  swprograms-request@hard-core-
> dx.com?subject=unsubscribe, or visit the URL shown above.



_______________________________________________
Swprograms mailing list
Swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/swprograms

To unsubscribe:  Send an E-mail to  swprograms-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?subject=unsubscribe, or visit the URL shown above.