Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America

["Rob de Santos" <rdesantos@xxxxxxxxx>]

My problem with all this doom and gloom is that it ignores history.  Yes,
societies succeed and fail (but others, at the same time, were doing just fine,
thank you).  Yes, sometimes things take a step backward before they go forward.
Economic crises occur because humans sometimes make mistakes or see their
situation in negative economic terms, whether it is or isn't.  And yes, we have
the capability to destroy ourselves if we so choose.  (And have since way before
July, 1945.)  Yes, disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes happen.  (Hmm,
maybe I should write a book on the "Coming Earthquake in California".  Oh,
sorry, been done.)

What it misses is that technology development and knowledge accelerates.
Nevertheless, predictions of the end appear every time there is some sort of
domestic or international crisis.  In my not quite half century I've heard it at
least a dozen times. About every 4 years, I think.  I imagine if we go back to
1961, 1939, 1929, 1914, etc. we could find many more examples.  The probability
of the human race wiping itself out is not zero.  It's also not one or anywhere
close to it.  

Economic demand will make alternate sources of energy used and workable if oil
ceases to be available.  Will there be societal disruption as some jobs are
created while others disappear?  Yep.  Will new technology shift demand to new
products from old ones?  Yep.  (Ask owners of conventional phone lines... just a
few years ago there were dire predictions of economic disaster if we didn't
change the telephone systems because we were running out of phone numbers due to
computers and fax machines.  Now those lines are freeing up so fast they can't
be sold.)

So, nothing that has happened in the past year (high oil prices, natural
disasters, financial crises) is new.  It has happened before and will again.
So, unless an external event such as an asteroid hit occurs or the Gospel
huxters prove correct and a God gets even with us, human society will still be
here tomorrow.  Whether you, or I, or our shortwave radios are here or not. 

--
-Rob de Santos

-----Original Message-----
From: Scott Royall [mailto:royall@xxxxxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2008 7:08 PM
To: k9iua@xxxxxxxxx; 'Shortwave programming discussion'
Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America as ofthe
B-08 schedule change

Yes Kevin, I pretty much knew what you were thinking. Notice that I am not
really dismissing your scenario, because such thinking has been part of
humanity since we crawled down from the trees. My own belief is that such
scenarios come from the same part of our brains that manufactures religions.
It's as if we can't accept that we are worthy in our own right to be the
dominant species. We keep expecting the other giant shoe to drop on us.

One of the problems I have with such dire scenarios is that they don't ever
follow through to the logical conclusion. Why would a downward spiral stop
with 1920 technology? Of course it wouldn't, because it's going to build up
momentum. there is no way for 1920s technology to support six billion people
so there would be an inevitable mass die-off, collapsing governments to
little more than city-states. Do I need to tell you what that would do for
metal prices? The ability to produce would quickly evaporate, and I've
already seen a report of a tower being stolen for its metal. In your
nightmare scenario, nobody would be inclined to broadcast to other states;
the far more likely response would be to nuke those perceived as threats.
That would thereby complete our slide to the Dark Ages.

The drawback of any nightmare scenario is the ignorance of the fact that the
Dark Ages was the last era where we had technology that individuals could
maintain completely independently. That's why it's the only honestly likely
stop to any full-scale global collapse.  As I see it, we're going up a steep
and slippery road with the Dark Ages in our mirror. That's where we'll end
up again if we start seriously sliding.

As a post-script to the above, I'm writing this in dying light. My house
still doesn't have main power after hurricane Ike. Would you like to guess
which devices are still going? Yes, the battery-powered digital stuff.  I do
have enough of a generator to keep them fed, but their analog counterparts
don't do enough to justify charging them. Of course, this is not your
nightmare scenario, but I find it telling.


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