Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America as ofthe B-08 schedule change

["Scott Royall" <royall@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Yes Kevin, I pretty much knew what you were thinking. Notice that I am not
really dismissing your scenario, because such thinking has been part of
humanity since we crawled down from the trees. My own belief is that such
scenarios come from the same part of our brains that manufactures religions.
It's as if we can't accept that we are worthy in our own right to be the
dominant species. We keep expecting the other giant shoe to drop on us.

One of the problems I have with such dire scenarios is that they don't ever
follow through to the logical conclusion. Why would a downward spiral stop
with 1920 technology? Of course it wouldn't, because it's going to build up
momentum. there is no way for 1920s technology to support six billion people
so there would be an inevitable mass die-off, collapsing governments to
little more than city-states. Do I need to tell you what that would do for
metal prices? The ability to produce would quickly evaporate, and I've
already seen a report of a tower being stolen for its metal. In your
nightmare scenario, nobody would be inclined to broadcast to other states;
the far more likely response would be to nuke those perceived as threats.
That would thereby complete our slide to the Dark Ages.

The drawback of any nightmare scenario is the ignorance of the fact that the
Dark Ages was the last era where we had technology that individuals could
maintain completely independently. That's why it's the only honestly likely
stop to any full-scale global collapse.  As I see it, we're going up a steep
and slippery road with the Dark Ages in our mirror. That's where we'll end
up again if we start seriously sliding.

As a post-script to the above, I'm writing this in dying light. My house
still doesn't have main power after hurricane Ike. Would you like to guess
which devices are still going? Yes, the battery-powered digital stuff.  I do
have enough of a generator to keep them fed, but their analog counterparts
don't do enough to justify charging them. Of course, this is not your
nightmare scenario, but I find it telling.


> -----Original Message-----
> From: swprograms-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:swprograms-bounces@hard-core-
> dx.com] On Behalf Of Kevin Anderson
> Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2008 9:45 AM
> To: Shortwave programming discussion
> Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America as
ofthe B-08
> schedule change
>
> I wasn't thinking necessarily of a nuclear exchange per se (although I
don't negate that
> entirely), but at least something more likely, that of a Post-Oil society,
which I know is
> coming as that resource, which we are so utterly dependent on, is finite
and we are already
> at or past peak oil production.  (Google "peak oil" to learn more of what
I mean.)
>
> Either way, a world is coming requiring much simpler technology, hopefully
still
> including postal mail delivery, limited electricity, maybe limited
telephone, but I am also
> hoping analogue radio of a level much like what we had in the 1920 to
1940s.  Digital
> would be far too sophisticated for this world.  Computers, if they exist,
will be limited
> once again to back-office financial or government uses.  And to me the
shift of television
> to digital put the nail in that technology's coffin for tomorrow's world.
Satellites, let alone
> internet, won't be part of this world either, leaving only over-the-air
shortwave radio as a
> means to serve potentially any large number of people outside of limited
government
> circles with news beyond a local area.
>
> Again, I can't fault the short-term decisions by international
broadcasters to reduce over-
> the-air transmissions due to financial decisions.  What bothers me most of
all, given my
> perspective quickly outlined above, is that it will also leave these same
broadcasters
> potentially poorly positioned to step back into filling this void as it
will likely become
> necessary later.  But maybe that has already happened with all the
shortwave transmission
> facilities around the world already privatized and outside a broadcaster's
ready access.
> RNW's current demolition of the Flevoland facility leaves them, if I am
not mistaken,
> without a local shortwave transmission facility except those accessible to
them only by
> satellite and possibly backup leased lines.  For that matter, most
broadcasters are in this
> same boat, with transmission facilities remote from program origination
points and all
> subject to being cutoff in tomorrow's world.  This is in part what I meant
by
>  "security" in my earlier posts.
>
> Kevin Anderson
>
> --- On Fri, 9/19/08, Scott Royall <royall@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > From: Scott Royall <royall@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America as
ofthe B-
> 08 schedule change
> > To: "'Shortwave programming discussion'" <swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Friday, September 19, 2008, 11:21 PM
> > Very true.
> >
> > > > think that you are alluding to a post-apocalyptic
> > situation, where
> > > > technology would be effectively rolled back. I
> > submit that you and I
> > > > probably won't be around in that case. We
> > most certainly won't be
> > > > casually
> > > > discussing it over the internet.
> > >
> > > And, let me add not to put too fine a point on things,
> > that we
> > > probably wouldn't want to be around anyway.
> > >
> > > John Figliozzi
>
>
>
>
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