Re: [Swprograms] DRM launches at the IFA

[Richard Cuff <rdcuff@xxxxxxxxx>]

The way to look at generational changes in radio reception technology
IMHO is to look at automobile lifespans as a starting point.  Nowadays
a typical car in the USA lasts perhaps 150,000 miles on average.  At
12,000 average miles/year, that is roughly a 12-year lifetime.

So there needs to be at least a 12-year dual-technology window when
analog and any digital technologies are available, because very few
people will be motivated to change out a radio mid-stream *unless*
there is a relatively inexpensive add-on unit (e.g. XM/Sirius) that
works with the current radio and brings advanced technology.

Part of my day job includes market forecasting.  One of the techniques
used is a demand substitution model -- sparing the details, we're
talking many years here before you can voluntarily pull a broadcaster
off analog SW/MW/FM unless you were planning to do so for other
delivery methods anyways..

We can further use XM / Sirius as a guide to what people are willing
to pay; after the early adopters of sattelite radio were willing to
pay $200-$300, I now see pricing of the units run $125 - $200 or so. 
When Mr. Senger's units hit the 100 Euro / $100 price tag, then I
think you'll see demand conversion pick up.

Look at the resistance to forced HDTV conversion as well and, again,
the useful life ot TV receivers.  The two we have in our home were
purchased in 1988 and 1995.  I have no intention of replacing either
for another 5 years unless they fail.  I will rely on an add-on tuner
to manage any forced HDTV conversion.

I agree with you two guys as well.  Mr. Senger was speaking like an
engineer, not as a marketer.

Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA  USA

On 9/7/05, John Figliozzi <jfiglio1@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> I agree wholeheartedly. Mike.  To add further perspective to this
> issue, there was a report last night on NBC news about the role the
> lowly (to some...perhaps including Senger) transistor radio was
> playing in getting vital information to victims of the Katrina
> Disaster in the US South.
>

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