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Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
For what it's worth, when the solar cycle 24 forecasts began coming out back
in 2008, I forecasted that it would be the smallest solar cycle in 100
years. At the time almost all of the other forecasts were for a large cycle.
You can see my discussions at http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm .
A major problem when making solar cycle forecasts is that there is no agreed
upon scientific standard as to what constitutes the beginning or ending of a
particular solar cycle. Therefore we don't know until we look in the past.
Here are my solar cycle 24 forecasts. The fact that I produced two forecast
updates means that I don't know what I'm talking about either.
November 02, 2010, a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 95 in December
2013.
March 30, 2009 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 100 in July 2013.
February 1, 2008 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 105 in October
2012.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Retired Meteorologist & Solar Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast:
http://www.solarcycle24.org
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Dashboard:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm
NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm
NZ4O 160 Meter (MF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm
Message: 2
Date: Thu, 03 May 2012 21:49:00 -0500
From: Todd <todftscytj7707@xxxxxxx>
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
<irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
Message-ID: <rhbcxv2kgd4banl8ju0e0l38.1336099740904@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
Just a curious piece of information from Coast to Coast radio show: They
fully believe we are in a ongoing low sunspot activity and have believed
this for several years now.
Todd Skaine
Woodbury, MN
2010, PL 310 or
Toyota radio
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