[IRCA] W4HM Discussion Of Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather
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[IRCA] W4HM Discussion Of Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather

W4HM DISCUSSION OF DAILY SOLAR SPACE AND GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER-

For Sunday February 24, 2013
Solar activity is moderate as far as the emergence of the number of new sunspot groups. Currently there are 6 new un-numbered sunspot groups and 4 existing numbered sunspot groups.
Solar activity is moderate as far as the number of solar flares, 7 occurred. The largest solar flare in magnitude was a small in size C2.6, which occurred at approximately N07W88 and associated with sunspot group #11678.
The daily solar flux index (SFI) has been below 100 for 2 consecutive days, currently (NOAA) at 95.1.
The daily sunspot number (SSN) has been below 100 for 5 consecutive days, currently (NOAA) at 25.
The daily SSN is notably low considering we are at or just past solar cycle 24 maximum. Solar cycle 24 continues to languish as a very weak one, per my forecast first issued in February 01, 2008 at http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm .
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for 1 consecutive day with the Kp (planetary) index in the 0-2 range, which is quiet geomagnetic conditions.
As collected by Potsdam Germany WDC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 11010101. As collected by NOAA/SWPC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 11111111. 

The Dst ranged between 0 and -23.
Via SOHO and sollen.info the maximum and minimum solar wind values were 282-346. 

Via NOAA the maximum background x-ray solar flux value was B2.9.
For the latest solar, space & geomagnetic weather data go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm . For an explanation of how the above indices affect MF, HF and VHF radio wave propagation go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .
To subscribe to the W4HM Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Subscription Service go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm or http://www.solarcycle24.org .
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2013 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 11 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency radio wave propagation possible.
The simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles. 

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best.
3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero.
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2013 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. 

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero. 

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, W4HM
Lakeland, FL, USA
w4hm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
W4HM Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Subscription Service: http://www.solarcycle24.org W4HM Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Data Dashboard: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm W4HM 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm W4HM Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm Solar Cycle 24 Dot Org on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/SolarCycle24org/139198369462931 

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