Re: [IRCA] the average Ap index

[Russ Edmunds <wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>]

There are two principles I've tried to apply to predicting geomagnetic conditions over the year. The first is to realize that some events are nearly spontaneous and may not be predictable beyond 24 hours out. This is either due to the cause being non-periodic or the cause simply being more obscure.

The second is that if you're looking for patterns, you have to look at periods of consecutive 28-day patterns. The problem here is that this works best during periods where there are what I'll call 'average' conditions - i.e. not right at or around a cycle minimum or maximum.

You can see recurrent patterns in the flux, A & K ( I am not familiar with some of the other indices Bill is plotting and don't know if I should be ) over those 28-day cycles. This is how we've ( so far ) been able to successfully select weekends for LBI for the past 4 years at a point 4 to 6 weeks out, based on the recurring patterns established over the prior 2-3 28-day cycles.

That said, like any such methodology, we're probably due to get surprised either in 2010 or 2011 with unexpectedly poor conditions.


Russ Edmunds
Blue Bell, PA ( 360' ASL )
[15 mi NNW of Philadelphia]
40:08:45N; 75:16:04W, Grid FN20id
<wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>
FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15'
AM: Modified Sony ICF 2010 barefoot


--- On Sat, 1/9/10, Bill Whitacre <bw@xxxxxxx> wrote:

> From: Bill Whitacre <bw@xxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: [IRCA] the average Ap index
> To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America" <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, January 9, 2010, 3:20 AM
> 
> On Jan 9, 2010, at 1:24 AM, Nick Hall-Patch wrote:
> 
> > At 10:43 1/8/2010, you wrote:
> > 
> > 
> >> Here's one that shows the last 60 days of several
> indices that may or may not shed any light on DX MW
> reception:
> >> 
> >> <http://ibbva-133.his.com/jpgraph_example2a.php>
> >> 
> >> and here's one that shows mostly the same indices
> as reported every 3 hours for the past 7 days along with a
> rating [1 - 5] of TA and TP reception here in Alexandria, VA
> for each day:
> >> 
> >> <http://ibbva-133.his.com/box+graph_test.php>
> >> 
> >> If these are of any use to anyone, you're welcome
> to bookmark them and tell me something I should be graphing
> that I'm not.
> > 
> > Thanks Bill....I'll add them to the mix
> here.   I won't claim to understand all the
> implications, but it certainly illustrates interesting times
> for MW DXers.
> 
> ---
> 
> Neither do I Nick.  That's why I plotted them -- to
> see if any of them or some combination of them can be used a
> predictors of 'good' reception or 'harbingers' of bad
> reception.
> 
> They are indices that either I know or suspect have some
> effect on MW prop or ones that have been suggested.
> 
> What I need to add is some kind of 'key' for the 'text
> book' definition of each and maybe a sentence or two about
> what we THINK they do to MW rxn.
> 
> 
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> 


      

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