Re: [IRCA] not TP for 3 Dec from Victoria, BC

["Craig Healy" <bubba@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

> > > Impressively poor conditions this morning...
> >
> > This should be interesting.  The A/K numbers are essentially zero,
> > but the Aurora pictures show a deeper coloration, as if some sun
> > activity is pending.  Just in the past hour the picture has gone
> > from a yellow to a more orange tinge.  We will see what happens
> > in the next day.
>
> It's odd that an increase in K from 0 to 1 would have such an
> effect, Craig.  Interestingly, the solar wind velocity increased
> by about 25% after 0500UT, just about the time that the TA's started
> gasping here; I would guess that increase is a precursor to
> increased auroral activity, but it shouldn't be much.   The last
> geomagnetic upset, the solar wind velocity more than doubled.
>
> Maybe our high latitude DX is dependent on some pretty subtle changes.

The numbers did increase by a small amount, and the aurora picture is a much
deeper orange the last time I looked.  So, it appears that deteriorating DX
conditions are a precursor to increased solar activity as reflected in the
WWV reports.

That's interesting, but a bit sad that DX can predict solar conditions,
rather than the other way around.  It may well be that the TA/TP MW skip is
a far more sensitive indicator of the solar activity than even the
observational instrumentation attached to the NOAA/WWV reports.

Craig Healy
Providence, RI


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