[IRCA] The DX Crystal Ball

["Les Rayburn" <les@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

This time of year inspires a lot of reflection on the past, and thoughts of
the future too. I've just finished reading two books about the history of
radio broadcasting in America, and that's lead me to speculate a bit
on what may happen in the future to the AM band, how those changes
will effect DXing.

So, with apologies, I invite you all to gaze into the "Crystal Ball" of DX 
with me.
Your view may be different than mine, and I'd be very interested in your
thoughts about where we are all heading.

THE NEXT TEN YEARS
==========================================

The growth of satellite technology and alternative media (I-Pods) will mean 
that traditional
radio will continue to lose market share. Meanwhile, new technology like 
Wi-Max
will begin to put IP based radio receivers into "early adopter" status, at 
least in the
major metro markets.

These market forces will drive much of the talk radio programming that is on 
AM
now to the FM band. People seeking music will just have too many other 
choices,
and won't be willing to suffer mindless chatter from DJ's and annoying car 
commercials
just to listen to some tunes in the car.

As talk radio moves to the FM band, the AM band will become even more 
fragmented
than it is now. Rather than broadcasting, it will become the "narrowcast" 
medium. New
languages will appear, as stations choose to serve smaller ethnic 
populations within
their markets. Cities like Richmond may have Arabic stations on the AM band, 
to serve
a community of perhaps less than 5,000 people.

Other AM stations may become glorified TIS stations, promoting local 
businesses or
attractions,  but at much greater distances. 24 hour traffic and weather 
information
will become widespread in smaller markets, much like it is in the major
markets today. Many will find the market just too fragmented to
make money at all, and will go dark.

>From a DXing standpoint, the challenges will be many. While I think that 
IBOC on AM
will go the way of AM-Stereo, failing to find a market niche. Text based 
traffic reports may
catch on in some metro markets, overall the technology will fail to find an 
audience on AM.
But in the short term, we'll have to put up with a lot more of it. Given the 
FCC's catering to
business concerns, I expect we'll soon see IBOC at night as well.

But offsetting this problem will be that as more stations go dark, there 
will be less inference
on graveyard and regional channels. Unusual programming will also make it 
easier to identify
stations that are received. As the syndicated talk programming moves to FM, 
the AM band
will take on a lot more of the local character that it had in the past.

THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS
=======================================

The growth of IP based radio will mean that even small, specialized 
audiences can be more easily (and cheaply)
served with other technology. "Broadcasting" in the current sense may well 
be a relic by now. Internet
access will be wireless and available virtually anywhere in the country, 
much like cellular service today.

Handheld devices will allow the user to view video content, listen to 
thousands of IP based radio stations,
receive local traffic and weather updates, and communicate with others. 
Rather than a lot of separate
devices (cell phone, Ipod, radio), users will have fewer devices that do 
more. And it will all be IP based.

Satellite radio with it's limited bandwidth will have peaked in it's market 
acceptable around 2015, and
will find itself struggling to remain profitable. The cellular phone 
industry will also be facing a huge
challenge from IP based wireless services, and will have declined greatly.

The FM band will have gone nearly 100% digital, with most of the content 
being news, talk,
and "narrowcast" programming. The AM band will still be mostly analog, 
serving only the
smallest of markets---most of the programming will be directed at elderly 
users or TIS type
functions.

There will also be a lot of growth in TIS stations operating across the 
band. Nearly every construction project,
housing development, etc. will operate low powered transmitters, as their 
cost drops to very low levels. Only the
large number of installed radios already out there will save the band from 
being reassigned to other services.

For DX'ers, there will be very few targets out there. But with the reduced 
interference, hobbyists will enjoy
a kind of 2nd Golden Age of DXing. Clear channels will be "clear" again, 
allowing coast to coast
reception of these signals with the reduced inference. Software based radio 
receivers will be inexpensive,
allowing very powerful tools at low cost.

But as the second decade of the 21st century nears an end, it will be 
obvious that AM radio is doomed.
By 2030, the entire slice of spectrum will be reassigned for other users.

OTHER VIEWS
===============================

The thing about gazing into a crystal ball is that each person sees 
something different. What does
your crystal ball show about the future of the AM band, and DXing?

73,

Les Rayburn, N1LF
NRC/IRCA Broadcast Test Coordinator
Please call anytime 24/7 if your transmitter
will be off the air for maintenance.
(205) 253-4867 

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