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Re: [Swprograms] OT: Future of Digital Radio
The analysis by Cringely is a fascinating one but I see several weaknesses in
his argument.
First, bandwidth is not unlimited and cannot increase by 50% per year for very
long. Physics tells us that either you make the pipe bigger or eventually you
will run out of room. Making bigger pipes is very expensive. One look at
Verizon's balance sheet and the amount of investment they have made in fiber
optics should make that clear. Can you improve the compression, efficiency,
etc.? Yep, and the cable providers (for example) will shed their analog service
and other things to do it, but a day of reckoning is coming. (Aside: If
Verizon was making the same decision today (in this economy) about investing in
their "FiOS" network, they wouldn't do it.)
Secondly, even if we assume he's right about the long term direction of Apple,
Microsoft, and the TV networks today I wouldn't assume the disadvantaged players
will not make some adjustment to changing reality. They may or may not, but
assuming they won't is not a safe bet. Likewise, I wouldn't assume Apple has
this quite so neatly figured out. (If he's right, I assume Cringely is buying
up Apple stock right and left and you should, too!)
Lastly, if Steve Jobs sits on the Disney board and is the largest shareholder,
do we really think that Disney/ABC will be allowed to wither while Apple eats up
the market? That would be strange to say the least so when Disney/ABC changes
its direction the other networks won't notice? Don't bet on it.
--
-Rob de Santos
-----Original Message-----
From: Richard Cuff [mailto:rdcuff@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 5:11 PM
To: Shortwave programming discussion
Subject: Re: [Swprograms] OT: Future of Digital Radio
I suspect that first-run, "must-see TV (and movies)" will support this
model, but I believe that subscription models (Netflix, Rhapsody) will
retain a significant niche for a "value" consumer that doesn't care
about last night's "American Idle" episode.
I suspect TiVo - which would make use of today's cable delivery
platform - will remain important. This will help give cable TV a
reason to exist, even if only a small percent of people watch a TV
show "live".
I believe digital OTA TV will largely be a bust. The number of people
who will want to limit their access to OTA channels will continue to
drop as those who were brought up on three or four networks die
off...much like young people listen less to radio nowadays than young
people did in years past, and less than their older kinfolk (like us).
When it comes to cable and Internet access, you are now seeing a
tiering of broadband Internet access - with DSL starting as low as $15
/ month and FIOS at the high end.
Watch out for mobile broadband...I suspect that will become reasonably
ubiquitous within 5-7 years' time.
You read it here first...good luck with that!
Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA
------------------------------
http://www.cringely.com/2009/05/the-future-of-internet-tv-in-america/
http://www.cringely.com/2009/05/the-future-of-television-part-ii/
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