Re: [Swprograms] The cutting of radio before when we may actually needit the most

["Richard Cuff" <richard@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

There is a counter-argument to this trend -- and that is the innovative
capacity of economies / societies to develop solutions that mitigate the
effects you predict.

With petroleum costs at $60 / barrel or more on a regular basis, alternate
energy sources that were infeasible before (e.g. biomass) become more
economically feasible.

Will societies be willing to accept collective risks (e.g. nuclear power)
when the downside is unstable electricity generation?

With business and social transactions becoming increasingly dependent on the
availability of digital communication networks, the need to build in
redundancy to those networks -- making them more stable -- increases.   They
won't be allowed to fail.

It's abruptness versus adaptive capacity at work -- how quick will tectonic
shifts occur, vs. how adaptive are those who develop the technologies that
address these tectonic shifts.

I am, for better or worse, a futurist -- and an optimistic one -- in
profession and confession.

If these alternative communications networks fail us, we'll be able to fall
back to more basic technologies (e.g. analog shortwave) because we haven't
forgotten how to make them work.  It will make sense to own shares in
Harris, Thomson, and other transmitter manufacturers at that time.

So it still makes sense to keep that '2010 tuned up...but I will also, for
now, make sure to pay my monthly fee for my Sirius subscription and Internet
access -- simply because they offer me convenience and choice.

Richard Cuff / happy-faced in Allentown, PA

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Kevin Anderson" <k9iua@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 9:07 AM
Subject: [Swprograms] The cutting of radio before when we may actually
needit the most


> It almost slipped by - that is the reference in Glenn's latest
> DXLD about Radio Egypt reducing is language coverage as reported
> by Kim Andrew Elliott(at least it wasn't a outright shutdown of
> external broadcasting) down to just two for the external
> service.
>
> What popped in my mind was once again something that I've been
> studying (and worrying about, to be honest) for sometime now -
> the changes coming as we have reached peak oil production and
> the slippery slope that is ahead.  I've written a few comments
> on this on my Hamblog site (e.g., see
> http://www.hamblog.com/blog_k9iua.php?p=494&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1,
> followed by
> http://www.hamblog.com/blog_k9iua.php?p=511&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1).
>
>
> [In short, anticipate oil and petroleum products to get very
> expensive quickly and less available, followed quickly by
> natural gas, with the production of electricity to become
> unstable with blackouts, problems with transportation and other
> production, particulary food production (as food production =
> oil these days) and in short a major change in how life as we
> know won't be able to continue, including major loss of life
> everywhere as we need to adjust back closer to the carrying
> capacity of the earth without petroleum and technology.]
>
> The point of my post now (hence the title) is that this is a
> future where, if we want global news, we will need to rely on
> radio and not the computer or internet.  The simpler technology
> will be what survives and is maintainable.  I just hope the
> major international broadcasters will be able to step back up to
> the plate, refurbish transmitters (senders) and antenna arrays,
> and give us the news we will need.
>
> Sorry if I strayed too far off the general topic of this list
> for most of your liking...(but actually the BBC World Service
> has had a number of programmes lately that have focused on oil
> production and many of the aspects of my post).
>
> Kevin
> Dubuque, Iowa, USA
>
>
> =====
> -- 
> -------------------------------------
> Kevin Anderson, Dubuque IA USA, K9IUA
> k9iua (at) yahoo (dot) com
> -------------------------------------
>
>
>
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