[IRCA] NZ4O Medium Frequency (300-3000 KC) Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2012-22

["Thomas F. Giella" <thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

NZ4O Medium Frequency (300-3000 KC) Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2012-22
“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams As Well As Shortwave Radio DXers 
And Listeners”



Published on Friday May 25, 2012 at 0000 UTC. Valid 0000 UTC Saturday May 
26, 2012 through 2359 UTC Friday Jun 01, 2012.



The NZ4O "Complete" MF/HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast can be found at 
http://www.solarcycle24.org ,  http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm 
and http://www.facebook.com/pages/SolarCycle24org/139198369462931 .


Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted 
in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) 
along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic 
disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal 
absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also 
increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption 
due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at 
energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays.

There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna 
polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX contact. As 
a medium frequency RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a 
perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and 
SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed 
than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on 
the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized 
signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or 
S9 and W4.

For more information on MF radiowave propagation theory check out 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .



GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 
AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND AND 160 METERS-

Note! This forecast is based upon quiet solar, space and geomagnetic weather 
conditions. Geomagnetic storming Kp-5> and energetic proton storms >10 MeV 
(10+0) can at times render the forecast temporarily inaccurate.

Magnetic Equator-

Low 0-25 degrees

Mid 25-60 degrees

High 60-90 degrees



FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair 
North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km-Poor To Fair 
South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Poor To Fair

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE- 
East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair

South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair 
North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair



Forecasted Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) 
Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in

excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km



High Latitude- Poor

Mid Latitude- Fair

Low Latitude- Poor



Forecasted Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) 
Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in

excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km



High Latitude- Poor

Mid Latitude- Fair

Low Latitude- Poor



HF Propagation Forecast Scale-
Excellent S9+1 Or Better
Good S7-S9
Fair S4-S6
Poor S1-S3
None S0


FORECASTED GLOBAL LIGHTNING NOISE (QRN)-

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm 
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season proximity

to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as cold/warm/occluded 
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low

pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low 
pressure systems.



Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low 
pressure systems.



Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm 
lightning induced QRN tied to summer season

proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm 
core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low 
pressure systems, as well as tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low 
pressure systems.



Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

Very High >+1 db Over S9

High- A7-9

Moderate- S4-6

Low- S1-3

None- S0



Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space 
Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to 
produce my radiowave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made 
public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation 
forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal 
intellectual property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein 
is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and 
distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced 
permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts 
are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to 
human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



NZ4O Amateur & SWL Radio Autobiography: http://www.nz4o.com
NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast: 
http://www.solarcycle24.org
Harmful Man Induced (Anthropogenic) Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: 
http://www.globalwarminglie.org





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