Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
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Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction



There is no question that we won't know until after it's happened, Russ, and that their previous predictions have failed to warn us of the slow take-off of this cycle, if I recall correctly. But as far as the date of the minimum, doesn't that have something to do with the number of sunspots of one cycle becoming outnumbered by the sunspots of the next cycle? (they have reversed magnetic polarity).

http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png with its blue and orange data points indicating the sunspots from different cycles, seems to indicate that the minimum occurred somewhere around three years ago.

best wishes,

Nick


At 20:36 03-05-12, you wrote:
That is all well and good, but since the experts took nearly two years deciding whether or not we had entered Cycle 24, and ultimately deciding we had done so a year or so prior, IMHO this is either 1) a perception of the obvious at present which is potentially pretty accurate or 2) a prediction which will prove to be wrong in a year or so.

I am reluctant to accept that we are 3 years into Cycle 24, and that's the assumption the prediction is based on, partially based on my comments above. If I am correct, then the maximum may not be hit until a year or perhaps more beyond what is predicted here., and as a result, the number predicted is probably low.


Russ Edmunds
15 mi NNW of Philadelphia
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--- On Thu, 5/3/12, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> From: Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
> To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America" <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:48 PM
> NASA's latest solar maximum
> prediction:
>
>
> http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
>
>
> N


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