Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction

[Russ Edmunds <wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>]

That is all well and good, but since the experts took nearly two years deciding whether or not we had entered Cycle 24, and ultimately deciding we had done so a year or so prior, IMHO this is either 1) a perception of the obvious at present which is potentially pretty accurate or 2) a prediction which will prove to be wrong in a year or so. 

I am reluctant to accept that we are 3 years into Cycle 24, and that's the assumption the prediction is based on, partially based on my comments above. If I am correct, then the maximum may not be hit until a year or perhaps more beyond what is predicted here., and as a result, the number predicted is probably low.


Russ Edmunds
15 mi NNW of Philadelphia  
Grid FN20id
<wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>
FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15'; Grundig G8
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--- On Thu, 5/3/12, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> From: Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
> To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America" <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:48 PM
> NASA's latest solar maximum
> prediction:
> 
> 
> http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
> 
> 
> Not surprisingly, it's now predicted to be very low, given
> the rather low sunspot numbers up until
> now.   As one  wag pointed out, at what
> point does a  prediction become an observation?
> 
> The above site does give some interesting background as to
> how the predictions are made.
> 
> best wishes,
> 
> Nick
> 
> 
> 
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