[IRCA] Fw: ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, December 15, 2006 2:07 PM
Subject: ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP52
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 15, 2006
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Big solar and geomagnetic activity this week from sunspot 930, as it
> moved across the center of the visible sun as we see it from earth.
> On Wednesday December 13, there was a big X-class solar flare, and
> Thursday's mid-latitude A index rose to 30, while the planetary A
> index hit 63, indicating a severe geomagnetic storm. As this
> bulletin is written after midnight Friday morning on the West Coast,
> the planetary K index for the past 9 hours has been 8. A full day
> with nothing but a K index of 8 would produce an A index over 200.
> The planetary A index predicted for December 15-18 is 45, 20, 15 and
> 5.
> 
> Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA sent a chart from 1986 showing a day during
> the low point between solar cycles when the A index suddenly shot to
> 200. Our sun doesn't always do as expected during low points of a
> solar cycle. There is a tremendous amount of short-term variability.
> You can see the graph at,
> http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist1986.html, where it is the top
> chart on the page.
> 
> Earlier Thursday evening the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued
> a warning for a major to severe geomagnetic storm for December 15.
> You can receive free emailed warnings of such events by subscribing
> at, http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning.
> Geophysical Institute Prague also predicts a severe geomagnetic
> storm for December 15, active conditions for December 16, unsettled
> for December 17, and back to quiet on December 18.
> 
> Geomagnetic storms aren't all bad. Other than producing pretty
> Aurora Borealis, there are some nice effects on VHF, too. Vince
> Varnas, K7ZH of Aloha, Oregon (CN85) reports, "Fantastic aurora and
> aurora-E opening today (Thursday night). I worked most of the
> northern tier of states and southern Canada provinces from WA1T (New
> Hampshire) to KL7NO (Fairbanks) on 50 MHz with 100 watts to a
> popular 3 element commercial Yagi on SSB (mostly). The Aurora
> commenced just before 0000 UTC for me and was mixed with auroral-E
> skip, too."
> 
> For last week's 10-meter contest, most reports talked about
> trans-equatorial propagation into South America, or sporadic-E skip.
> Bob Griffiths, NE3I of Blue Bell, Pennsylvania reported the contest
> operation was either with locals, or groups of stations worked in a
> row when one area of the country or the other seemed to pop in for a
> brief period.
> 
> Of course it helps to be further south. Ken Lappe, W1YO of Leesburg,
> Florida reports that from Central Florida 10-meters was open to
> South America both Saturday and Sunday. But the 10-meter contest was
> much better last year, with more African, Canadian and U.S. stations
> worked. By the way, both W1YO and NE3I were using simple vertical
> antennas.
> 
> It's time to wrap up the bulletin for this week, because in addition
> to the geomagnetic storm, there is a huge wind storm blowing outside
> here in Seattle, the lights keep flickering, and I need to turn this
> in before the power goes out. There is also a final exam in a Perl
> programming course this weekend. Perl gurus are welcome to email
> advice and encouragement, or to help comment my code.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra@xxxxxxxxx
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13 were 48, 32, 13, 23, 28,
> 27 and 21 with a mean of 27.4. 10.7 cm flux was 96, 96, 92.4, 90,
> 92.2, 102, and 93.6, with a mean of 94.6. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 25, 25, 7, 14, 15, 26 and 5 with a mean of 16.7.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 14, 17, 6, 8, 11, 15 and 5,
> with a mean of 10.9.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>

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