[IRCA] Fw: ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, November 17, 2006 8:54 AM
Subject: ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
> ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP47
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  November 17, 2006
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP047
> ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> This week saw the odd combination of the average daily sunspot
> number declining while the solar flux rose. It isn't so odd for this
> to happen when there are very few sunspots, and one rises slightly
> while the other declines slightly. But this time, the solar flux
> rose quite a bit. The average daily sunspot number dropped nearly 19
> points to 27.7, and average daily solar flux rose over 8 points to
> 94.3.
> 
> There is a big sunspot, number 923, currently moving off center to
> the western limb. This sunspot is so large that it could be seen
> unaided at sunset, although this is not safe viewing. Perhaps this
> spot radiated plenty of energy at 2.8 GHz (the frequency at which
> solar flux is measured), but the combined area and number of spots
> didn't make a high sunspot number.
> 
> Solar flux is measured daily near Penticton, British Columbia since
> 1991. Prior to 1991, measurements were made at Ottawa. You can see a
> photo of the 2.8 GHz antenna here, http://tinyurl.com/ycf8y3, and
> you can read about it at, http://tinyurl.com/yk4oym and
> http://tinyurl.com/yzjmxc.
> 
> This week is the phone weekend of ARRL Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes is a
> very popular activity in which the emphasis is on working domestic
> stations in as many ARRL Sections as possible in the United States
> and Canada, rather than DX. You can only work any station one time,
> even if you change bands, and the multiplier is the number of ARRL
> Sections that you work. You can see the rules at,
> http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2006/novss.html.
> 
> Conditions should be good this weekend, although today (November 17)
> unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected. After today geomagnetic
> conditions should stabilize. Predicted planetary A indices for
> November 17-20 are 15, 10, 5 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague
> predicts unsettled to active conditions for November 17, unsettled
> November 18, quiet to unsettled November 19, quiet November 20-22,
> and quiet to unsettled on November 23.
> 
> The predicted solar flux is 95 through the weekend. This is
> relatively high for this point in the sunspot cycle. If we had zero
> sunspots we would expect to see the solar flux nearly 30 points
> lower, around 67.
> 
> 10 and 12 meters continue to produce openings over long distances,
> even though the Fall sporadic-E season probably peaked in October.
> Ray Parker, ND6S of Sutter Creek, California reports that on
> November 10 he worked VR2BG and VK5BC just after 0200z on 10 meters,
> and heard a JA and ZL station. On the same day, but 7 hours earlier
> Roger Edwards, K1GBS in Tampa, Florida worked Arizona and Wyoming.
> 
> Mike Schatzburg, W2AJI of Tryon, North Carolina reports fantastic 20
> meter conditions every evening into South Africa and the South
> Pacific. Mike wrote, "20 Meters has had fantastic short path
> propagation both into the South Pacific, and into South Africa each
> evening. On 11/11 and 11/12, between 0500 and 0630 UTC, the band has
> been fully open, with low noise conditions, and very little
> stateside QRM on SSB."
> 
> He continues, "Most 100 watt dipole stations produce S7 signal
> reports, with the high power DXers and Yagis producing S9 plus 10 DB
> signals on my calibrated Mark V S-meter. There is very little
> fading, and the contacts are solid. Outstanding contacts were had
> with ZS2EC, ZS1AU, ZS4U, and ZS1YL amongst many more strong stations
> on Nov. 11. On Nov. 12, the same bi-directional conditions existed,
> about the same 8,000 mile plus skip distances with VK3SS, VK2GWK,
> VK2MAD, and ZL2AIA. These stations report very little activity being
> heard from the US, and the pileups which ensued after calling just
> one CQ were very large indeed."
> 
> He goes on to say, "As usual I was using a five element monoband
> Yagi, with a 44 foot boom at 75 feet (see
> http://home.earthlink.net/~cherokeehillfarm/id2.html). The base of
> the tower is at 1002 feet on a very steep hill in the Blue Ridge."
> 
> Mike ends with, "I believe that conditions will be improving, but
> more ideal propagation could not be found this late at night when
> you have quiet as well."
> 
> Mike sure has a wonderful 20 meter antenna.
> 
> Hector Garcia, XE2K wrote in a week ago after returning from the XF4
> operation on the Revillagigedo Island Group in the Pacific. He said
> he worked many JA stations on 10 meters, and there seemed to be
> several good openings on 10 and 12 meters with strong signals, but
> not many stations actually on the air.
> 
> I received an email noting that Thomas Ashcraft, mentioned in last
> week's propagation forecast bulletin isn't really an astronomer.
> This is the fellow who recorded Sun noise on HF with 2 receivers on
> 18.7 and 22.2 MHz, then made stereo recordings out of them. Ashcraft
> is actually an artist, and if you do a web search for his name,
> you'll see reviews of his interesting and unusual work in the New
> York Times and Art In America. Last week I said he used antennas
> aimed at the Sun, but in fact these are just two dipoles cut to
> frequency. You can see his web site at, http://www.heliotown.com/.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra@xxxxxxxxx
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15 were 29, 13, 13, 18, 30,
> 41 and 50 with a mean of 27.7. 10.7 cm flux was 89.4, 91.1, 97,
> 96.7, 95.2, 94.5, and 96.1, with a mean of 94.3. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 10, 36, 20, 7, 2, 4 and 5 with a mean of 12.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 29, 20, 9, 1, 3 and 6, with
> a mean of 10.7.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>

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