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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

Another element here is that as far as I can tell, the determination of when one cycle ends and another begins is somewhat arbitrary and ambiguous as there is nothing natural which sets up a divider - just scientists trying to juggle different factors into some sort of a consensus and then trying to retrofit that onto cycles past.


While I certainly agree with Kaz, I still expect that the cycle change will occur before then end of 2020.


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id

________________________________
From: IRCA <irca-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> on behalf of Neil Kazaross <neilkaz58@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:16:14 PM
To: irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
lifetimes.  73 KAZ

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
> believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
> been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The
> prediction, if true, would be longer than that.    Interesting times,
> maybe.
>
> best wishes,
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
> >The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
> >that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
> >mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
> >farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
> >
> >
> >That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
> >recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
> >and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
> >suggest that this will happen again.
> >
> >
> >But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
> >have I heard that expressions before ? ).
> >
> >
> >Russ Edmunds
> >
> >WB2BJH
> >
> >Blue Bell, PA
> >
> >Grid FN20id
> >
> >________________________________
> >From: IRCA <irca-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> on behalf of Nick
> >Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
> >To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
> >Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
> >
> >from the topband list:
> >
> > >NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
> > >flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
> > >ended in 2019.
> > >Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
> > >2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
> > >during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
> > >through at least the end of 2022.
> > >www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression<http://www.swpc<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression<http://www.swpc>.
> > noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
> > >I hate predictions, especially about the future...
> > >73
> > >Frank
> > >W3LPL
> >
> >
> >That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
> >which I didn't think possible.
> >
> >They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
> >still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
> >fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
> >
> >best wishes,
> >
> >Nick
> >
> >Nick Hall-Patch
> >Victoria, BC
> >Canada
> >
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> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada
>
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