Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?

[Neil Kazaross <neilkaz58@xxxxxxxxx>]

Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
lifetimes.  73 KAZ

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
> believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
> been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles).  The
> prediction, if true, would be longer than that.    Interesting times,
> maybe.
>
> best wishes,
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
> >The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
> >that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
> >mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
> >farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
> >
> >
> >That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
> >recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
> >and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
> >suggest that this will happen again.
> >
> >
> >But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
> >have I heard that expressions before ? ).
> >
> >
> >Russ Edmunds
> >
> >WB2BJH
> >
> >Blue Bell, PA
> >
> >Grid FN20id
> >
> >________________________________
> >From: IRCA <irca-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> on behalf of Nick
> >Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
> >To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
> >Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
> >
> >from the topband list:
> >
> > >NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
> > >flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
> > >ended in 2019.
> > >Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
> > >2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
> > >during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
> > >through at least the end of 2022.
> > >www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression<http://www.swpc.
> > noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
> > >I hate predictions, especially about the future...
> > >73
> > >Frank
> > >W3LPL
> >
> >
> >That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
> >which I didn't think possible.
> >
> >They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
> >still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
> >fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
> >
> >best wishes,
> >
> >Nick
> >
> >Nick Hall-Patch
> >Victoria, BC
> >Canada
> >
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> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada
>
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