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Re: [IRCA] [NRC-AM] New Mediumwave Propagation Project



Thanks for the input Mark.

At this point in the proceedings, rather than bursts of loggings of overseas MW DX at random times, what is really needed is signal strength data that is recorded regularly, at the same time, every day, and unfortunately, that is pretty thin on the ground. The daily loggings that I have been doing for the past couple of years are the nearest that we could come up with, as at least there is an attempt at noting every DX station heard, as well as peak signal strengths for each . Even these loggings have a certain anecdotal aspect to them, depending on how carefully I go through my files each day, but I believe they give a good general idea of daily conditions. We have cobbled together a metric that approximates total signal strength of all DX noted for each day, which are the numbers seen on Bill's charts. Arbitrary, but it's done the same way, every day.

An eye is being kept on the frequent reports that have been accompanying mine in the IRCA list, but If you, or anybody else, knows of regular recording of signal strengths from MW DX stations that is occurring elsewhere, please let one of us know.

With a constant stream of such data, we think we get an idea of "good days", "OK days" and "bad days" of DX conditions. Whether that can be correlated in any way with the constant stream of data that is available from the providers of geomagnetic indices...well, that remains to be seen. The charts are updated regularly and available at http://tivodxer.com/jpgraph_example_multigraph1.php, so anyone can try their hand at finding patterns in the information provided. Bill is working at providing archival displays going back further than 60 days ago as well.

Of course, if patterns are found, then we will still have no more than a working hypothesis at best, and, at that point, it will be really useful to look at all those more random loggings that are being reported, to see how well they match up with that working hypothesis. Even though the random observations are unlikely to help much now, they could be very useful further down the road. For this project, it continues to be important that those observations continue to be reported to the lists. They are being saved, just not really usable right now.

In effect, we're trying to follow the scientific method...make consistent observations (and note when we don't), generate a hypothesis, if possible, using these charts, and then hope that people keep challenging any hypothesis with fresh observations that will either help confirm it, modify it, or throw it out.

(for example, if we'd already rashly formed a grand Theory of Everything based on the execrable conditions of the last few weeks as observed in western Canada, we would have been immediately shot down by Walt Salmaniw's recent loggings from Haida Gwaii)

best wishes,

Nick



At 01:19 15-01-17, Mark Connelly via IRCA wrote:

I think that the Topband list (160m ham) members could also offer useful input to the study. Nick Hall-Patch "reads the mail" on that list and occasionally contributes.


East Coast observations can be mined out of various sources (Facebook, Yahoogroups, NRC e-list / bulletin, IRCA e-list / bulletin, etc.). Look for regular contributions from DXers in Atlantic Canada and the New England states: the areas where TA's and deeper Latin Americans are most likely to be observed. Going back 60 days gets you into the timeframe of several DXpeditions that occurred in November. These include NL, PEI, ME, MA, NJ, and PA. Those reports should provide a lot of data points to augment all the West Coast stuff.


Mark Connelly, WA1ION
South Yarmouth, MA


-----Original Message-----
From: Bill Whitacre <bw@xxxxxxx>
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; am <am@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sat, Jan 14, 2017 2:21 pm
Subject: [NRC-AM] New Mediumwave Propagation Project

If you're interested in radio propagation and how geomagnetic indices effect
what you hear on mediumwave, there's a project you should know about.

Graphs of the last 60 days of the daily average of the 2MeV electron flux,
A-index, K-index, Dst and solar wind plus a numerical index of Nick Hall-Patch's
daily Victoria, BC TP and DU reception quality can be found here:

http://tivodxer.com/jpgraph_example_multigraph1.php

Not only are pertinent geomagnetic indices shown on the same page for the same
period for your comparison, but we've added actual reception data to the graph.
Our hope is that this will allow us to find some new correlations between
reception and what the sun is doing, as well as validate or refute some existing
theories.

Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada
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