[HCDX] SIDC Belgium Daily Space Weather Bulletin

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Note my KN4LF 7 Day HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm will return shortly.

:Issued: 2003 Aug 10 1159 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 

SIDC URSIGRAM 30810
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Aug 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Aug 2003 until 12 Aug 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Aug 2003  10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Aug 2003  10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Aug 2003  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 007

COMMENT: The solar wind speed continues to decline, albeit at a slower pace.
Over the past 24 hours it decreased from 650km/s to 600km/s. This decrease is
expected to continue. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remains mainly northwards. As expected, geomagnetic conditions have
therefore remained quiet with occasional short increases to active level. These
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. From the end of Aug
12 onwards, the earth is expected to enter a high speed solar wind stream
originating from an equatorial extension of a coronal hole on the northern solar
hemisphere. The large sunspot group 90 (NOAA 0424) has slightly decreased in
size, but remains magnetically complex with strong magnetic fields. It retains
the potential to generate a large M-flare. There is also a small chance for an
M-flare from Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA 0431), a new sunspot group at the
eastern solar limb.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 Aug 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 113
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 019

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, Meteorologist
C/S KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249 

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
 




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