[IRCA] the small one?

[Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>]

Hmmm, sort of like weather forecasting.... now they're saying:

014-01-10 01:15 UTC  Modest Start to Geomagnetic Storm

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with 
the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event 
from January 7th is now affecting Earth but the 
resulting geomagnetic storm is off to a modest 
start, with no substantial storming occurring 
thus far.  The initial structure of this CME has 
been relatively weak in strength, but that said, 
it generally takes on the order of 24 hours or 
more for the full event to transpire and stronger 
storming is certainly still possible.  The 
ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, still just above 
the S2 (Moderate) threshold, continues it slow 
decay toward background levels.  Additionally, 
Region 1944 is showing some signs of decay and no 
significant flaring has been observed in the last 
48 hours.  Stay tuned for updates.

Where's my K=7?

best wishes,

Nick


At 17:35 09-01-14, you wrote:
> No sign of it yet, protons and Kp actually down 
> and Asia conditions the best so far this week 
> here. Is it just late or did it go somewhere else?
>
> 73, Mauno
>
> 9.1.2014 7:21, coffee_canuck kirjoitti:
> > Yup. This x-class has Earth dead in its sites. Strap yourself in people.
> >
> > Sent from my iPhone
> >
> > On 2014-01-08, at 8:51 PM, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> > > big aurora on the way?
> > >   NOAA is predicting up to K-7 about 5 hours 
> > > from now...from http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
> > >
> > >
> > > > 2014-01-09 00:03 UTC  S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress
> > > >
> > > > The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation 
> > > > Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event 
> > > > as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 
> > > > 8. Protons should stay at this same 
> > > > approximate level for the next few hours, 
> > > > then likely take another jump with the 
> > > > passage of the shock ahead of the CME, 
> > > > expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. 
> > > > EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this 
> > > > increase is not expected to exceed the S3 
> > > > level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 
> > > > (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through 
> > > > January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be 
> > > > ready; updates here as things unfold.
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