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[IRCA] NZ4O "Daily" Condensed MF Radiowave Propagation Forecast
- Subject: [IRCA] NZ4O "Daily" Condensed MF Radiowave Propagation Forecast
- From: "Thomas F. Giella" <thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 29 May 2012 12:32:47 -0400
The NZ4O "Daily" Condensed MF Radiowave Propagation Forecast has been
published on Tuesday May 29, 2012 at 1500 UTC and is valid for the next 24
hours.
The NZ4O "Complete" MF/HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast can be found at
http://www.solarcycle24.org , http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm
and http://www.facebook.com/pages/SolarCycle24org/139198369462931 .
Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted
in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF)
along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic
disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal
absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also
increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption
due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at
energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays.
There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna
polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX contact. As
a medium frequency RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a
perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and
SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed
than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on
the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized
signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or
S9 and W4.
For more information on MF radiowave propagation theory check out
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .
GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND AND 160 METERS-
Note! This forecast is based upon quiet solar, space and geomagnetic weather
conditions. Geomagnetic storming Kp-5> and energetic proton storms >10 MeV
(10+0) can at times render the forecast temporarily inaccurate.
Magnetic Equator-
Low 0-25 degrees
Mid 25-60 degrees
High 60-90 degrees
http://www.wcflunatall.com/geomagneticequator.gif
FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-
East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair
North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km-Poor To Fair
South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Poor To Fair
FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE-
East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair
South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair
North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair
Forecasted Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in
excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km
High Latitude- Poor
Mid Latitude- Fair
Low Latitude- Poor
Forecasted Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in
excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km
High Latitude- Poor
Mid Latitude- Fair
Low Latitude- Poor
HF Propagation Forecast Scale-
Excellent S9+1 Or Better
Good S7-S9
Fair S4-S6
Poor S1-S3
None S0
FORECASTED GLOBAL LIGHTNING NOISE (QRN)-
Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season proximity
to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as cold/warm/occluded
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to summer season
proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems, as well as tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-
Very High >+1 db Over S9
High- S7-9
Moderate- S4-6
Low- S1-3
None- S0
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to
produce my radiowave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made
public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation
forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein
is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and
distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced
permission as long as proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts
are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to
human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
NZ4O Amateur & SWL Radio Autobiography: http://www.nz4o.com
NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast:
http://www.solarcycle24.org
Harmful Man Induced (Anthropogenic) Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted:
http://www.globalwarminglie.org
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