Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction

[Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>]

There is no question that we won't know until after it's happened, 
Russ, and that their previous predictions have failed to warn us of 
the slow take-off of this cycle, if I recall correctly.   But as far 
as the date of the minimum, doesn't that have something to do with 
the number of sunspots of one cycle becoming outnumbered by the 
sunspots of the next cycle?     (they have reversed magnetic polarity).

http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png  with its blue 
and orange data points indicating the sunspots from different cycles, 
seems to indicate that the minimum occurred somewhere around three years ago.

best wishes,

Nick


At 20:36 03-05-12, you wrote:
> That is all well and good, but since the experts took nearly two 
> years deciding whether or not we had entered Cycle 24, and 
> ultimately deciding we had done so a year or so prior, IMHO this is 
> either 1) a perception of the obvious at present which is 
> potentially pretty accurate or 2) a prediction which will prove to 
> be wrong in a year or so.
>
> I am reluctant to accept that we are 3 years into Cycle 24, and 
> that's the assumption the prediction is based on, partially based on 
> my comments above. If I am correct, then the maximum may not be hit 
> until a year or perhaps more beyond what is predicted here., and as 
> a result, the number predicted is probably low.
>
>
> Russ Edmunds
> 15 mi NNW of Philadelphia
> Grid FN20id
> <wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>
> FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15'; Grundig G8
> AM:  Modified Sony ICF 2010's barefoot
>
>
> --- On Thu, 5/3/12, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > From: Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
> > To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America" 
> <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:48 PM
> > NASA's latest solar maximum
> > prediction:
> >
> >
> > http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
> >
> >
> > N


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