Re: [IRCA] propagation predictions
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Re: [IRCA] propagation predictions



Actually Russ, the reason I mentioned it is because he specifically provides forecasts for MW and LW; the MW forecast is the one I reproduced.

best wishes,

Nick



At 13:30 30/10/2010, you wrote:
Probably of limited applicability as it mostly orients itself to SW and VHF. While it includes what hams call "LF", which correlates to 160 meters, which is located above the MW BCB, the propagation characteristics aren't identical.

The bottom line with almost any MW propagation forecast is that predicting what's going to occur with the sun is iffy at best. Many large sunspots remain active through 2 or 3 solar rotations, which increases predictive accuracy, but new spots forming on the back side of the sun or other less visible and less predictable impacts can come from other events. Further, some events occur but are aimed away from earth and therefore have little or no impact.




Russ Edmunds
Blue Bell, PA ( 360' ASL )
[15 mi NNW of Philadelphia]
40:08:45N; 75:16:04W, Grid FN20id
<wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>
FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15'
AM: Modified Sony ICF 2010 barefoot


--- On Sat, 10/30/10, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> From: Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [IRCA] propagation predictions
> To: irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Date: Saturday, October 30, 2010, 2:02 AM
> http://www.solarcycle24.org/   includes
> predictions for MW, and some thoughts on indicators for
> improved propagation.      Use at your own
> risk.....can't be much poorer than some of our weather
> forecasts lately.
>
>  (e.g.  let's see how this flies....
>
> NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-
> -East -> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km
>     Fair To Good
>
> *North -> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km
> Fair To Good
>
> +South -> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
> Poor To Fair
>
>
> Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
> (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation
> conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km:
>
> High Latitude
> Fair To Good
>
> Mid Latitude
> Good
>
> Low Latitude
> Good
> )
>
>
> Nick
>
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>




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