[IRCA] Fw: ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, June 22, 2007 6:40 AM
Subject: ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
> ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP26
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  June 22, 2007
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP026
> ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> June 23-24 is ARRL Field Day, and it follows a week with no
> sunspots.  As expected, there was a mild geomagnetic upset on
> Thursday, June 21 when a solar wind stream pushed against Earth's
> magnetic field.  The planetary A index went to 14, a moderate level,
> but the mid-latitude A index, which affects most of us more
> directly, was only 8.  That number comes from the Fredericksburg
> Geomagnetic Center near Corbin, Virginia, which is at 38.2 degrees
> north latitude.  Boulder, Colorado provides the mid-latitude A index
> that we hear on WWV at 18 minutes after each hour, and at 40 degrees
> north latitude, it produced an A index of 12 for June 21.
> 
> For the weekend, we might see another sunspot appear by Sunday, so
> it looks like any 10-meter propagation will be sporadic-E skip, not
> any great openings based on a higher MUF.  The predicted planetary A
> index for June 22-24, Friday through Sunday, is 15, 10 and 8.
> Predicted solar flux is 68, 68 and 70.  A solar flux value below 70
> implies no sunspots, which you can observe alongside zero sunspot
> days at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt.
> 
> Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled to active conditions
> June 22, unsettled June 23, and quiet June 24-25, quiet to unsettled
> June 26, and back to quiet June 27-28.
> 
> The A index and solar flux predictions referenced in the previous
> paragraph are available at,
> http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.  After 2100z on
> Friday, check this again for a June 22 update.
> 
> For visualizing propagation on each HF band for this weekend, try
> VOAProp, mentioned in Propagation Forecast ARLP008 for this year
> (see, http://tinyurl.com/2rjkzk).  You can get the program free at,
> http://www.g4ilo.com/voaprop.html from G4ILO, the author.  This is a
> program for visualizing worldwide propagation, and of course the
> Field Day focus is on the United States and Canada.  
> 
> Field Day is also an operating activity that doesn't give any extra
> points or multipliers for states, sections, DX countries, or zones,
> so the operator just wants to work as many stations as possible.  DX
> stations can be worked as well, but score the same as contacting a
> station just down the road.
> 
> The program uses the predicted smoothed sunspot number, which
> according to the software is currently 12, but if you wish, you
> could try backing it down toward zero, as there have been no
> sunspots lately.  Because it actually uses the prediction engine
> from VOACAP, it gives only a monthly prediction, not one keyed to a
> particular day of the season.
> 
> An alternative would be to use W6ELprop, which gives you an
> hour-by-hour table of predicted relative signal strengths between
> any two points for a particular day, although the variation from one
> day to the next is hardly noticeable.  W6ELprop is free at,
> http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/.
> 
> With VOAProp, I can set up the station location for anywhere, and if
> I set it for 0600z for Memphis, Tennessee, for instance, I can click
> through the bands and see that 40-meters gives me the best coverage
> over North America overnight.  I can select 15-meters and progress
> the time through the day, and see that after sunrise, there is a
> possibility of 15-meter openings, but it looks spotty.  At 1900z,
> I'm seeing some propagation, but south toward Central America.
> 
> We received some reports of 6-meter openings on Father's Day, June
> 17.  Jim Henderson, KF7E of Arizona (DM43) said, "Central America
> was booming," and he worked three that were new for him; Costa Rica,
> Panama and Nicaragua.  Jim said the Central America opening lasted
> for two hours, then many Mexican stations were heard and worked.
> Later in the day there was a "pipeline" to the San Diego area
> lasting 3-4 hours, and backscatter as well, which had him copying
> K7ICW in Las Cruces (near El Paso) for an hour.
> 
> Also on Sunday another Arizona station, N7NRA, Glenn Stewart
> reported a great 10-meter opening around 1800 local time (0100z
> Monday) when stations from Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas,
> Oklahoma, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Oregon
> checked into the local 10-meter net.  On Saturday, the day prior,
> Terry Oldham, KH6MT of Grand Island, Florida said he heard lots of
> north-south propagation on 10-meters, and the next day had a solid
> opening to Texas for two hours.
> 
> Ken Tata, K1KT of Warwick, Rhode Island reported a 6-meter opening
> the following day (Monday) to VO1DJT from 1800z until at least
> 1820z.  He heard stations from 8 and 9-land calling the VO1, but
> that may have been backscatter.  VO1DJT is way up in Lewisporte,
> Newfoundland and Labrador, above 49.2 degrees north latitude.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra@xxxxxxxxx
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 14 through 20 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0
> with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 69.1, 68, 66.7, 66.6, 66.4,
> and 65.7, with a mean of 67.3. Estimated planetary A indices were
> 20, 8, 7, 6, 5, 7 and 4 with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A
> indices were 13, 7, 4, 3, 5, 5 and 2, with a mean of 5.6.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
>

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