[IRCA] Fw: ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, February 16, 2007 4:19 PM
Subject: ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
> ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP08
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  February 16, 2007
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP008
> ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> The sunspot number is still zero, and the sun appears spotless, at
> least from this side.  Helioseismic holography detected a large spot
> on the sun's far side on February 5, but another look on February 7
> showed a moderate sized spot.  Still unknown is whether it will fade
> away before reaching our sun's earth-facing side.  A February 14
> reading shows one or two sunspot groups currently on the far side.
> 
> For the ARRL International DX CW Contest this weekend, expect more
> of the same conditions, with a sunspot count of zero or possibly
> eleven (due to the way sunspots are counted, there is no actual
> sunspot number between one and ten, even though you will see those
> numbers in averages).  Don't expect the highest HF bands to be very
> productive, although 15 meters may surprise us, especially if you
> are further south (Los Angeles and Miami, vs. Seattle and Boston,
> for instance) and also if you work stations in the Southern
> Hemisphere.  Operators in the southern states, for instance, may
> even find some ten-meter propagation to South America.  Any of those
> paths will have a higher MUF.
> 
> The IMF currently points south with a solar wind stream in progress,
> making Earth vulnerable.  But the solar wind is weak enough that we
> shouldn't expect any great geomagnetic disturbances.  The current
> prediction is for a planetary A index of 8 for today, February 16,
> and 5 through the weekend and into next week.  This is a nice low
> number, indicating quiet conditions with low absorption.
> 
> The solar flux for today, read at noon local time in British
> Columbia, is 74.7.  The U.S. Air Force yesterday predicted solar
> flux of 75 for today, and 80 through February 20.  Today the
> forecast was revised slightly lower.  It predicts 75 for tomorrow
> through February 20.  This suggests possibly more days of zero
> sunspots.  After 2100 UTC each day, you can get an update on the
> predicted numbers at
> http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.
> 
> This week brought several messages about propagation software.  Some
> noted that this bulletin frequently mentions W6ELprop.  This is
> because it is easy to use and free, as well as being easily
> available.  Each mentioned their favorite propagation software, and
> asked that we look at what they are using.
> 
> Steve Hammer, K6SGH of Santa Barbara, California suggested VOAProp
> from Julian Moss, G4ILO.  This is Windows freeware and serves as a
> front end or shell for the free VOACAP software.  VOACAP stands for
> Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program, and it was developed by
> the U.S. government.
> 
> To run VOAProp, you download the setup file from Julian's web site
> at http://www.g4ilo.com/voaprop.html.  As you install VOAProp, it
> directs the user to the VOACAP download site.  When executing the
> VOACAP setup file, it is best to let it install in its default
> installation directory (itshfbc), right at the root of the hard
> drive, at the C:\.
> 
> The web site has instructions for using VOAProp, and the first thing
> you'll want to do is set it up with your own latitude and longitude.
> Then you click on the Solar Data button, and let it download the
> predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, in addition to
> current data from WWV.  Then you can set up the month and year, and
> if you want, you can easily reset it for sunspot numbers higher or
> lower than the current one, to try out different scenarios.
> 
> The program has a nice map display, and above it are buttons for
> each of the 9 HF amateur bands, plus 160.  Yes, it does include 160
> meters, as well as 60 meters and the WARC bands at 12, 17 and 30
> meters.  Click a band-button, and the program displays a contour map
> showing what signals should be like in all directions from your
> location.  These are similar to contour maps showing elevation for
> terrain, or weather maps that display contoured areas for
> temperature or barometric pressure.
> 
> Users may also operate a slide-control up or down for relative
> antenna gain and power output.  This is a relative control, not
> calibrated to anything, but it is fascinating to see new areas
> appear on the signal level contour map as the level of the control
> is raised.  It is also very interesting to progress the time from
> 0000 UTC through the day, which it does in one-hour increments.  You
> can watch the shifting contours move across the globe.  My only wish
> for improvement would be for the Time control to go past 2400 UTC,
> so that you can see what comes at 0100, 0200 and beyond, without
> decrementing the control the 23 steps back to zero as you move into
> evening time in North America.
> 
> You can also see a 24-hour graph of probable signal levels between
> you and any particular location.  Just click on the map to draw a
> line from you to any spot.  You then click on Show Chart to bring up
> the graph.
> 
> This program is free, and Julian has a Pay Pal button on his site
> for donations from users.
> 
> K6SGH, who suggested Julian's software, has his own useful resources
> on the web.  Go to http://www.k6sgh.com/ and look for a link to the
> Moxon Antenna Project, where you can find plans for simple but
> effective homebrew gain antennas based on designs by the late Les
> Moxon, G6XN.
> 
> Thomas Otterbein, DG8FBV was the other person who wrote, and he
> suggested WinCap Wizard from Jim Tabor, KU5S, another fine program
> also based on VOACAP.  We'll try to get to that soon, but in the
> mean time check out the KU5S software at http://www.taborsoft.com/.
> 
> Dave Gregory, KJ6P/TI5RLI wrote: ''You've probably already mentioned
> the one I like: HamCap.  I don't recall seeing it mentioned though.
> I like it because it interfaces with DXAtlas with a nice display.  I
> run my computer with two monitors and have the HamCap and either
> DXSummit or Ham Radio Deluxe -- DX Cluster Analysis on one screen
> and DXAtlas on the other''.  I don't think we've mentioned HamCap,
> but you can find more information at http://www.dxatlas.com/HamCap/.
> 
> If you have a collection of QST Magazine over the past year, check
> out a great article by John Raydo, K0IZ, which reviews the currently
> popular propagation software.  It is titled ''HF Propagation Software
> -- A Look at the Field'', and appears on page 41 in the October 2006
> issue of QST.  There is feedback on the article in the December 2006
> issue on page 56.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7raarrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly
> propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
> locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for February 8 through 14 were 22, 11, 11, 0, 0, 0
> and 0 with a mean of 6.3. 10.7 cm flux was 78.4, 76.7, 75.9, 74.7,
> 73.6, 72.7, and 72.7, with a mean of 75. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 7, 4, 3, 2, 7, 17 and 18 with a mean of 8.3. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 13 and 16, with a mean of
> 6.4.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
>

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