[IRCA] Fw: ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

1057 PST


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, November 03, 2006 9:30 AM
Subject: ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
> ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP45
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  November 3, 2006
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP045
> ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot numbers rose over the past few days. Though the average
> sunspot number for the past reporting week (Thursday through
> Wednesday) was about the same as the previous week, the emergence of
> sunspots 921 and 922 brought the daily sunspot number over October
> 29 through November 2 to 0, 15, 34, 46 and 59. This number will
> probably rise through the weekend.
> 
> The increased sunspot numbers may correlate with some activity
> observed for the past few days on the higher bands. A glance at
> http://dx.dxers.info/ on Thursday evening shows that during the day,
> Asian Far East stations on 10 and 12 meters were hearing and working
> the XF4DL expedition on Socorro Island (this is in the Pacific
> Ocean, roughly 300 miles south of Baja California on roughly the
> same latitude as Mexico City). Also apparent on 10 and 12 meters is
> E51QMA in the North Cook Islands heard and worked by North American
> stations.
> 
> Helioseismology detects (see
> http://spaceweather.com/glossary/farside.html) a new spot emerging
> on the far side of our Sun which should rotate to face us in a few
> days, around November 7. Why this, when we might be only months away
> from sunspot minimum, predicted to occur some time around April 2007
> (see http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt)?  Attribute it
> to the many large short term variations we see in solar activity
> during any cycle.
> 
> October is over, and we now know the average sunspot number for the
> month (14.7) and the average solar flux (74.3). Here are the monthly
> averages for the past thirteen months:
> 
> The average daily sunspot numbers for the months October 2005
> through October 2006 were 13, 32.2, 62.6, 26.7, 5.3, 21.3, 55.2,
> 39.6, 24.4 , 22.6, 22.8, 25.2 and 14.7. Average daily solar flux for
> the same months was 76.6, 86.3, 90.8, 83.4, 76.5, 75.5, 88.9, 80.9,
> 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8 and 74.3.
> 
> We can compare the recent monthly sunspot averages to the averages
> during the last solar minimum in 1996. The monthly average sunspot
> numbers for January 1996 through April 1997 were 18, 9.1, 12.1, 8.5,
> 11.9, 18.8, 13.2, 20.7, 2.9, 2.3, 25.6, 15.1, 8.7, 11.4, 13.7, and
> 24.5. We see the lowest numbers were in September-October 1996, and
> six months prior to that, the numbers weren't far off from what
> we've seen for the past three months, 22.8, 25.2 and 14.7.
> 
> Last week was the phone weekend of the CQ World Wide DX Contest.
> Geomagnetic conditions were a bit unsettled. This weekend is the CW
> weekend for ARRL Sweepstakes, and conditions should remain quiet
> through the weekend, with increased sunspot numbers. Many contesters
> would rather see those conditions on a DX contest weekend, but we
> can't complain. The predicted planetary A index (lower numbers
> indicate more stable geomagnetic conditions), for November 3-9 are
> 8, 8, 5, 5, 5, 5 and 20. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
> unsettled conditions for November 3, quiet to unsettled November 4,
> quiet conditions November 5-7, quiet to unsettled November 8, and
> unsettled to active November 9.
> 
> Larry Godel, W0OGH in Gilbert, Arizona reports that he experienced
> good 10 meter FM openings last weekend to California and Texas. He
> was able to work through the W5DFW repeater and another near
> Yosemite in California with full-quieting signals. He comments that
> on Sunday morning, "on the 40 meter AM net, local stations (those
> within 100 miles) were strong as 20db over S9. Within 5 minutes they
> were gone and within half an hour they were all back, strong as
> ever. Conditions stayed that way for several hours thereafter."
> 
> Finally, I don't know if this fellow in Quebec is a ham operator,
> but he should be. This illustrates a personal fantasy I had as an 11
> year old. Problem was, it was 1963, and we didn't have the
> technology yet. Take a look at these videos at,
> http://tinyurl.com/n7agv and http://tinyurl.com/ms6t2.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra@xxxxxxxxx
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html . An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1 were 0, 2 14, 28,
> 0, 15, 34 and 46 with a mean of 19.9. 10.7 cm flux was 71.9, 72,
> 74.7 , 73.3, 75.7, 80.1, and 86.7, with a mean of 76.3. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 1, 2, 14, 21, 9, 4 and 6 with a mean of
> 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 12, 13, 6, 2 and 5,
> with a mean of 6.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
>

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