Re: [IRCA] Predicted Aurora

["CHARLES HUTTON" <charlesh3@xxxxxxx>]

John:

Here's what NOAA says. You can read the full data at 
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html .


Chuck



IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 18 and 19 October. Active and minor
storm periods are expected on 20 October as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 070
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  005/005-005/008-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/40
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/50
Minor storm           01/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10



>From: "John H. Bryant" <bjohnorcas@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of 
>America<irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: "irca-hard-core-dx.com" <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: [IRCA] Predicted Aurora
>Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2006 10:33:58 -0700
>
>I don't usually follow these things, but the local TV news last night
>was talking about a predicted visible Aurora on Friday night  in the
>Pacific NW NAm.... UTC 0000 on Saturday or later.  I went on-line and
>couldn't find too much, but it does appear that there is a large
>coronal hole that is rotating around to where the ejecta stream can
>strike the earth on Friday evening or Saturday.
>
>Anyone know of a more detailed prediction???
>
>Guy Atkins and I are headed for Grayland tomorrow at dawn.... Not
>sure whether an aurora would be good or bad.
>
>JOhn B.
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