Although a large and complex group of sunspots appeared on the
south-eastern edge of the sun last weekend, there was initially no
significant increase in solar activity. This changed on Monday morning,
when the new sunspot AR3932 erupted and a M8.9 flare flashed, only just
short of an X flare in intensity. However, contrary to all expectations,
the eruption only led to a brief shortwave blackout over Africa and the
South Atlantic, which was only noticeable up to the 17 m band.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in connection with the eruption
did have a component directed towards the Earth in initial prediction
models. However, the CME ultimately missed our planet. And the
geomagnetics were mostly calm from the middle of the week onwards. There
were still more active phases at the start of the week. This was caused
by CME effects and a fast solar wind that shook the Earth's magnetic field.Calm to unsettled conditions with the chance of isolated active periods
are expected for the next few days, due to possible streak effects from
a CME that left the sun on December 24, as well as weak, positively
polarized fast solar winds from a coronal hole.In terms of solar activity, the solar flux index will remain above the
threshold of 230 units for the next seven days. In summary, this
promises good DX conditions on all bands!And what about 2025? Have we already experienced the sunspot maximum of
solar cycle 25? It may already have happened, sometime between July and
November, as solar activity has been trending downwards since late
summer. In the last few days, however, the solar flux has increased
significantly again, with many M flares raising the flux to over 250 units.If we look at the course of several cycles, we can see that some have
very active final phases. Many of the cycles have double peaks. With a
little optimism, we should assume that a double peak will also occur in
cycle 25 and that solar activity is currently in the small valley
between two activity peaks. This would mean that cycle 25 is not yet
over and will increase again in 2025.The critical F2 frequencies in the mid-latitudes are currently quite
high due to the so-called winter anomaly (see last week's report). And
since the anomalies in the northern and southern hemispheres differ by
six months, the peak in activity should fall in this period.So there is good reason to hope for a happy new DX year. And that's what
we wish all shortwave enthusiasts for 2025! And always trouble-free
reception, until next Saturday, 73 de Tom DF5JL - with current
information from DK0WCY, SWPC/NOAA, NASA, USAF 557th Weather Wing,
STCE/KMI Belgium, IAP Juliusruh, SANSA South African National Space
Agency, WDC Kyoto, GFZ Potsdam, Met Office UK,
DL1VDL/DL8MDW/DARC-HF-Referat, FWBSt RHB / DF5JL
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