Re: [Swprograms] Strongest magnetic storm in 30 years

[Daniel Say <say@xxxxxx>]

> With a Kp of 7 one would think so.
> 
> Richard
> 
> On 12/8/06, Ted Schuerzinger <fedya@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> > I presume SW listening will be crap for a few days to a week, but I
> > suppose the aurora might be visible at lower latitudes?
> _______________________________________________

	Not from the equatorial regions.
	Get out those Spanish dictionaries and scan
	all those stations tha used to be blurted out
	by the Europowertransmitters.

	Hot-diggety!

---------- quote --------	The Mike Bird forecasts --------
---------see the RNW MN 25th Anniversary VODcast with Mike Bird --------
----- at: http://www.radionetherlands.nl/features/media/mna060511 -----

"From: rwc <rwc@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: ips-dsgr@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 06    

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     High               High               High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable  
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41 
COMMENT: Solar activity has remained high over the last 24 hours
with Region 930 producing another X class flare (X1.6) at
2226 UT and C class flares at 1156 UT and 1636 UT (C1.0 and C1.2
respectively). A type II radio sweep was associated with the
X class flare beginning at 2210 UT. This indicates that a CME                   
was probably emitted with the flare with a high chance that it                  
is earthward bound. The shock speed has been estimated as       
1500 +/- 200 km/s. LASCO images were not available to confirm
a CME at the time of this report. The frontside halo CME associated
with the December 13 X3.4 flare impacted the earth at around                  
14UT. A sudden impulse was observed in earth based magnetometers                
at 1416 UT of around 100 nT. A sudden impulse in the solar wind
was also observed at around 14 UT, the solar wind speed jumping
from 600 km/s to around 950 km/s. At the time of this report
solar wind speed is 850 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has                   
fluctuated between +/- 15 nT since 14 UT and is - 15nT at the
time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be high over                 
the next few days with Region 930 having a good chance of producing             
further M and X class flares. A minor proton event may follow
over the next 24 - 48 hours with the occurrence of the latest X class
flare. The proton event associated with the X-class flare of
December 13 is still in progress.           
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1351UT on 14      
Dec.


IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential       
 from solar region(s):number 930.

3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
                    Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High
14 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor                
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 12 2006 0305UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
                    Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High                       
15 Dec      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor
16 Dec      Fair           Fair           Poor
17 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair
COMMENT: Propogation conditions throughout the UT day were normal
at low and mid latitudes until around 14 UT. Conditions at high
latitudes have remained depressed due to the effects of the current
proton event (PCA). A short wave fadeout occurred between 2216
UT and 2330 UT in all Australasian regions but particularly in
eastern Australian regions and New Zealand due to a X1.6 flare    
which occurred at 2216 UT. A complete HF fadeout was observed
in ionograms over eastern Australasian regions betwen 2216UT
and 2330UT. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed at all
latitudes degrading HF communications between 4 UT and 20 UT.
With the arrival of a CME at around 14 UT and the onset of a             
minor ionospheric storm, HF propogation conditions have shown  
minor depressions. Conditions are expected to degrade further                   
as the current geomagnetic disturbance intensifies. Major depressions
are expected particurly during local night time hours. Ionospheric
support is expected to return to normal in approximately 72 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------          
IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc@xxxxxxxxxx
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060      
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