[Swprograms] Shortwave as a part of in-car audio?

["Rob de Santos AFANA" <rdesantos@xxxxxxxxx>]

The following is a curious comment from today's SkyReport newsletter:
(see about 3 paragraphs from bottom)
(I am quoting the entire section as it would not be meaningful to the
list to only quote the relevant sentence.)
-Rob de Santos
-Columbus, Ohio USA
------------
OUTSIDE THE BOX: Satellite Radio's In-Vehicle Competition 
By Jimmy Schaeffler, The Carmel Group 

Decades ago, with the advent of TV, pessimists said there was no place
for the new service, because "Why would anyone need more than a radio to
get their news and entertainment?" Jump forward 60 years, and similar
naysayers call DBS an acronym for "don't be stupid." Their 1980s and
early 1990s logic: cable and broadcast TV were more than enough for just
about everybody, so how could there be a place in people's lives for
another telecom service that did the same thing (even if it did it quite
a bit better)? Ultimately, as everyone knows, TV, and later DBS, both
became a critical part of the telecom landscape. What is interesting,
though, is to note that even as much an improvement as each was, neither
eliminated its predecessor, each did well despite the competition, and
all grew to become a vital part of the telecom landscape. In fact, the
overall pie - and the choices they represented - grew significantly. 

Jump forward another 10 or so years and today the U.S. is pitched in a
new battle over the same kind of telecom development, where again, the
pie grows and numerous competitors thrive, side-by-side. In this case,
the new player is satellite radio, with more than 7 million subscribers,
and its competition comes in the form of traditional analog AM and FM
radio, as well as burgeoning services like MP3 players, terrestrial
radio, and video- and Internet-to-the-vehicle. 

In this competitive vein, many believe that the future of satellite
radio is lukewarm, at best. They point primarily to the competition sat
radio is already beginning to experience inside the passenger cab of any
car, truck or RV, or on the mobile, office or home fronts (and even in
Starbucks). These critics believe satellite radio's jump start will be
keenly muted, especially with the advent of 1) MP3 players, such as
Apple's iPOD, 2) soon-to-be nearly ubiquitous digital terrestrial radio
services, 3) Internet-supplied data content, and 4)
video-to-the-kids-in-the-back-of-the-SUV. 

An iPOD-like device requires a fair sum of work (and time and money) to
find and download one's playlist, and then constant monitoring (and more
time and more money) to ensure the right choice of songs finds the
screen. In addition, as The Wall Street Journal's top tech writer,
Walter Mossberg, noted in an Oct. 12 column, the new iPOD adapter
devices raise significant safety concerns tied to hands off the wheel
and constant and regular viewing of the selection screen that keeps
one's eyes away from the road ahead (or behind). Mossberg also bemoans
the fact that the new iPOD adapters involve unsightly wires and one or
two hardware devices too many. 

The next major competitor to satellite radio is the crystal clear
delivery of AM and FM programming in the form of digital terrestrial
radio (AKA HD radio). Lead by Columbia, Md.,-based iBiquity Digital,
this market segment is providing the infrastructure used by AM and FM
broadcasters to deliver, digitally, existing and new radio channels.
Notes iBiqity's VP, OEM Business Development, Jeff McGannon, "In
Detroit, 23 stations are broadcasting our HD radio service, and nine of
those are broadcasting an additional channel on the same frequency.
Right now, our service reaches about six of 10 Americans; in two years,
we'll reach nine out of 10." Viewing the same growth idea from a
population POV, McGannon claims that within a couple of years,
everywhere there is an AM and FM station, there will be HD radio. 

On the satellite radio side, vendors XM and Sirius have two key counter
arguments to the success of these rivals. Digital terrestrial radio, in
order to be truly competitive with both the digital quality and unique
programming offered by satellite radio vendors, needs to also offer the
broad breadth of content. Yet, if it were to already do that today,
digital terrestrial radio would already find itself playing catch-up to
the leadership created by XM and Sirius (especially if it were to try
now to land talent like Stern, Stewart, Petty and Buffett). Because a
company like iBiquity does not actually develop or provide content
itself, it will be up to the local terrestrial digital broadcasters
themselves to decide how important it is to develop unique content -
especially locally-produced and locally-relevant content - and
subscription pay audio services that can compete with those of satellite
radio. 

Further, both XM and Sirius emphasize the "effortless" functioning of a
motor vehicle's satellite radio service, meaning, like any radio, one
needs only select a particular themed channel, and let it play. MP3
players, conversely, require that each song be sought out in advance,
paid for separately in advance, and then downloaded to the device.
Whether this "just listen" feature is a sat radio advantage that caters
mostly to older listeners (who, often with new families and children,
are less likely to have the time to fashion their own music), or one
that eventually more and more younger audiences will appreciate, remains
a tough prediction. 

Other competitors coming to the in-vehicle space will include deliverers
of Internet content and those of video, the latter of which will likely
also include XM and Sirius. The one major obstacle they are all likely
to face is a prohibition against driver viewing screens (instead of the
road). Also, because a majority of time spent and miles driven in almost
any vehicle are those involving single occupants, Internet and video
content is not the type that most providers will rush to deliver to
those vehicles. That said, a few vehicles, such as buses, RVs and SUVs,
are prime for video and Internet content. 

Sirius' programming chief, Jay Clark, summarizes the in-vehicle
competitive experience in the following manner: "I think there's room
for all of us. And I certainly don't think that just because there's an
MP3 in our space, that we can't be there, too." Newer cars will soon
have built-in adapter devices, without clunky wires and extra boxes on
the sides or in the glove compartments, and within a few years, the
interior of a vehicle will include a virtual plethora of
telecommunications devices and options. These will include standard
driver telecom head-sets for phone and audio input, the latter of which
will include terrestrial AM and FM, wireless, satellite, short wave and
other forms of similar services. 

In the years ahead, radio listeners and vehicle occupants will find
there's a lot more to taste from a lot bigger pie of better and better
choices. The Carmel Group has for 8 years - well before the rise of
digital terrestrial radio and MP3 players - projected the 2010
subscription base for satellite radio at roughly 30 million. We retain
that calculated estimate today, despite the oncoming competitive base.
The only thing that has changed is that we today have created
projections for the other competitors. Suffice it to say, those other
projections remain fairly bullish, as well. 

Jimmy Schaeffler is the chairman and chief service officer of The Carmel
Group, a ten-year-old Carmel-by-the-Sea-based consultancy that focuses
on the global multichannel industry. He can be reached at
jimmy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and (831) 643 2222. 

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