Re: [Swprograms] Re: Auroral reports: IPS Daily Report - 07 November 04]
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Re: [Swprograms] Re: Auroral reports: IPS Daily Report - 07 November 04]



A handy gathering place for auroral discussions:

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/predict.cgi

Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA  USA


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Daniel Say" <say@xxxxxx>
To: <swprograms@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, November 08, 2004 3:31 AM
Subject: [Swprograms] Re: Auroral reports: IPS Daily Report - 07 November
04]


> ----- Forwarded message from rwc <rwc@xxxxxxxxxx> -----
> From: rwc <rwc@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: ips-dsgr@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 04
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> Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2004 00:13:52 GMT
>
> SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
> ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
> FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
> SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
> STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
> Activity 07 Nov:  High
>
> Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
>   X2.0    1606UT  probable   all    South American/
>                                     Atlantic
>
> Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 130/84
>
>
> 1B. SOLAR FORECAST
>              08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
> Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
> Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
> 10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72
> COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
> region 696 producing many C-Class events and a X2.0 Class event
> at 1545UT. Lasco C3 imagery for the 7th of November is not available
> to confirm a CME. An associated proton event is currently in
> progress arising from the X2-Class event. Region 696 remains
> quite large in sunspot size and retains a level of magnetic compexity
> that suggests further C and M-Class events are possible. A shock
> front from a CME from the 03Nov or 04Nov was observed and has
> resulted in Major Geomagnetic Storm conditons. At 1000UT the
> solar wind velocity increased by 50km/s and began to steadily
> rise from 430km/s to 500km/s at 1755UT at which it then rose
> sharply to be at 700km/s at the time of this report. Simarly
> the north south component of the interplanetary magentic field
> Bz, indicated the shock arrivals with step impulse changes in
> its magnitude of 20nT at 1755UT after which it turned southwards
> to be -40nT at the time of this report. The magentometer on the
> GOES satellite indicated a probable Geo-synchronous crossing
> of the magnetosphere exposing it to the solar wind stream as
> seen in its recorded data. There also appears to be another region
> significant region approaching the southeast limb that should
> roate on disc within the next few days.
> A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0153UT
> on 07 Nov, and a possible weak shock was observed in the solar
> wind at 0958UT on 07 Nov, and a strong shock was observed in
> the solar wind at 1754UT on 07 Nov.
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
>
> Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Severe Storm
Levels
>
> Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
>    Australian Region      27   2324 4467
>       Darwin              25   2324 3466
>       Townsville          30   2325 4467
>       Learmonth           32   2225 4567
>       Culgoora             -   ---- ----
>       Canberra            35   1324 4477
>       Hobart              32   1314 3477
>       Casey(Ant)          34   ---4 3366
>
> Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV :
>       Townsville           2   (Quiet)
>       Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
>       Culgoora            NA
>       Canberra             4   (Quiet)
>       Hobart               2   (Quiet)
> Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
> of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
> of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
>
> Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
>            Fredericksburg        22
>            Planetary             25
>
> Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
>            Fredericksburg         4
>            Planetary              3   0000 1111
>
>
> 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
> Date      Ap    Conditions
> 08 Nov    60    Storm levels
> 09 Nov    50    Storm levels
> 10 Nov    30    Active to Minor storm
> COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 7 November
> and is current for interval 8-10 November. Geomagnetic activity
> was Quiet to Major Storm levels over the last 24 hours.A shock
> arival from a CME on 03/04 November has resulted in the current
> storm conditions. There is also a proton event curently taking
> place from a X2-Class event that occured at 1545UT. Storm conditions
> are expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours after which
> another shock front arrival could occur if a full halo CME was
> produced from the X2-Class event today (LASCO C3 imagery wasnt
> available to confirm this).
> A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
> at 1053UT on 07 Nov.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
>             Latitude Band
> Date        Low            Middle         High
> 07 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
> PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in
progress
>
> 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
>             Latitude Band
> Date        Low            Middle         High
> 08 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
> 09 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor
> 10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
> COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be depressed for the next
> 24-36 hours due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
>
>
> Date   T index
> 07 Nov    56
>
> Observed Australian Regional MUFs
>    Equatorial PNG Region:
>       Near predicted monthly values during local day,
>       Enhanced by 25% during local night.
>    Northern Australian Region:
>       Near predicted monthly values during local day,
>       Enhanced by 20% during local night.
>    Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
>       Mostly near predicted monthly values,
>    Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
>       Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
>
>
> Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35
>
> 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
> Date   T index  MUFs
> 08 Nov    10    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
> 09 Nov    10    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
> 10 Nov    30    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
> COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 7 November
> and is current for interval 9-10 November. Depressed HF conditions
> forecast for the next 24-36hrs due to the arrival of shock fronts
> from recent CME activity on 03/04Nov resulting in Major Geomagnetic
> Storm levels. A proton event is also currently in progress and
> will affect transpolar communications. Depressed conditions expected
> for all Aus/NZ regions.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
>
> GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
>        Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
>        Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
>        Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
> Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
> Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
>        X-ray background: B4.3
>
> ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
> Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   1 nT
>
> (Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
> ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
>
>
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