[IRCA] Daily Discussion Of Solar Space And Geomagnetic Weather
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[IRCA] Daily Discussion Of Solar Space And Geomagnetic Weather

DISCUSSION OF DAILY SOLAR SPACE AND GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER-

For Tuesday February 12, 2013
Solar activity is high as far as the emergence of the number of new sunspot groups. Currently there are 6 new un-numbered sunspot groups and 5 existing numbered sunspot groups.
Solar activity is low as far as the number of new solar flares, 3 occurred. The largest solar flare in magnitude was a small in size C1.5, associated with sunspot group #11670, located at approximately N17W48.
The daily solar flux index (SFI) has been above 100 for 13 consecutive days, currently at 101.8. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in the F2 ionosphere layer, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most ham's and SWL's are used to the solar flux value and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the inter-related background x-ray flux. A background x-ray flux level of C0 and greater is needed to produce enough ionization in the F2 layer for 10 meter radio wave propagation.
The daily sunspot number (SSN) has languished below 100 for 28 consecutive days, currently (NOAA) at 55.
The geomagnetic field had been quiet for 4 consecutive days with the Kp (planetary) index in the 0-2 range. But there was one 3 hour interval with a Kp of 3, which is unsettled geomagnetic conditions. The Kp of 3 was associated with the over-hyped solar flare and incoming coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on Saturday February 9th.
As collected by Potsdam Germany WDC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 1011113. As collected by NOAA/SWPC the 3 hour Kp (planetary) intervals were 10011212. 

The Dst ranged between +3 and -15.

Via SOHO the maximum and minimum solar wind values were 300-360 km/s.
The maximum background x-ray value was B1.8. Background radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (hard x-ray's), as well as solar and galactic cosmic rays and ionization of nitric oxide (NO) in our atmosphere is the source of ionization of the D layer. When the background x-ray solar flux exceeds A0 absorption of MF radio wave signals occur.
For the latest solar, space & geomagnetic weather data go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm . For an explanation of how the above indices affect MF, HF and VHF radio wave propagation go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/kn4lf5.htm .
To subscribe to the NZ4O Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Subscription Service go to http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm or http://www.solarcycle24.org .
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2013 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. 

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best.
3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -10 units below zero and trending towards zero.
6B.) GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2013 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given. 

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best. 

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best. 

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -10 units below zero and trending towards zero. 



73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
NZ4O Daily MF/HF/6M Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Subscription Service: http://www.solarcycle24.org NZ4O Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Data Dashboard: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm NZ4O 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm Solar Cycle 24 Dot Org on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/SolarCycle24org/139198369462931 

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