[IRCA] Increased Chance Of Shortwave Fadeout of MF and HF Signals

["Thomas F. Giella" <thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

New sunspot group #11476 has risen around the east limb of the sun and is 
currently located near N09E67. It currently contains a twisted (Delta) 
magnetic signature capable of producing M and isolated X class solar flares.

The solar flares may eject geo-effective position (earth directed) energetic 
protons with energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), causing increased D layer 
absorption of MF and HF (300-14350 kc) signals (Shortwave Fadeout) (Sudden 
Ionosphere Disturbance) along high latitude paths.

Normally this is a daytime occurrence at high latitude but the energetic 
protons can precipitate along magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring 
current, creating D layer absorption of MF and HF signals at mid and 
equatorial latitudes both at day and night time.

Also large recurrent transequatorial coronal hole #515 will be in 
geo-effective position (earth facing) between May 07-08, 2012. This will 
create minor Kp-5
to isolated moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming between May-09-11, 2012.

The updated forecast for ham 12 and 10 meters, SWL 11 meters (in red color) 
can be seen at : http://www.solarcycle24.org

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Retired Meteorologist & Solar Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

eMail Reflector Moderator & Owner

NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast:
http://www.solarcycle24.org
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Dashboard:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm
NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm
NZ4O 160 Meter (MF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm



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