Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction

[Todd <todftscytj7707@xxxxxxx>]

Just a curious piece of information from Coast to Coast radio show: They fully believe we are in a ongoing low sunspot activity and have believed this for several years now.

Todd Skaine 
Woodbury, MN
2010, PL 310 or 
Toyota radio

Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

>We may be getting into the angels dancing on the point of a pin 
>territory Russ, but doesn't the sunspot cycle peak fewer years after 
>the minimum than it takes to decay back to the minimum from the 
>maximum?    Much of the elongation of the last cycle was in its decay 
>down to minimum, greatly appreciated by high latitude DXers everywhere.
>
>best wishes,
>
>Nick
>
>
>At 23:23 03-05-12, you wrote:
>>I believe that you are correct. As I recall, the problem was that 
>>the minimum was so prolonged that there was a period of many months 
>>where there was discussion back and forth because through those 
>>months there were appearances of both polarities with roughly 
>>similar numbers bouncing back and forth as to which was predominant. 
>>Many proclaimed the start of 24 the very first time there were 
>>different polarity spots. Others proclaimed it the first time the 
>>new polarity outnumbered the old, but then the balance swung back 
>>again. So it all is somewhat relative in this case as there really 
>>didn't seem to be a clear cut switchover.
>>
>>The chart you referenced does seem to bear that out.
>>
>>But since I'm on a roll here, the other factor is that Cycle 23 was 
>>anything but normal length, and so one could suggest that there is 
>>now less cause to expect that 24 will suddenly revert to the norm. 
>>If for instance 24 were also elongated, the peak *might* be delayed.
>>
>>Russ Edmunds
>>15 mi NNW of Philadelphia
>>Grid FN20id
>><wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>
>>FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15'; Grundig G8
>>AM:  Modified Sony ICF 2010's barefoot
>>
>>
>>--- On Thu, 5/3/12, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> > From: Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
>> > Subject: Re: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
>> > To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America" 
>> <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012, 6:42 PM
>> > There is no question that we won't
>> > know until after it's happened, Russ, and that their
>> > previous predictions have failed to warn us of the slow
>> > take-off of this cycle, if I recall
>> > correctly.   But as far as the date of the
>> > minimum, doesn't that have something to do with the number
>> > of sunspots of one cycle becoming outnumbered by the
>> > sunspots of the next cycle?     (they
>> > have reversed magnetic polarity).
>> >
>> > http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
>> > with its blue and orange data points indicating the sunspots
>> > from different cycles, seems to indicate that the minimum
>> > occurred somewhere around three years ago.
>> >
>> > best wishes,
>> >
>> > Nick
>> >
>> >
>> > At 20:36 03-05-12, you wrote:
>> > > That is all well and good, but since the experts took
>> > nearly two years deciding whether or not we had entered
>> > Cycle 24, and ultimately deciding we had done so a year or
>> > so prior, IMHO this is either 1) a perception of the obvious
>> > at present which is potentially pretty accurate or 2) a
>> > prediction which will prove to be wrong in a year or so.
>> > >
>> > > I am reluctant to accept that we are 3 years into Cycle
>> > 24, and that's the assumption the prediction is based on,
>> > partially based on my comments above. If I am correct, then
>> > the maximum may not be hit until a year or perhaps more
>> > beyond what is predicted here., and as a result, the number
>> > predicted is probably low.
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Russ Edmunds
>> > > 15 mi NNW of Philadelphia
>> > > Grid FN20id
>> > > <wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>
>> > > FM: Yamaha T-80 & Onkyo T-450RDS w/ APS9B @15';
>> > Grundig G8
>> > > AM:  Modified Sony ICF 2010's barefoot
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > --- On Thu, 5/3/12, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
>> > wrote:
>> > >
>> > > > From: Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
>> > > > Subject: [IRCA] latest solar cycle prediction
>> > > > To: "Mailing list for the International Radio Club
>> > of America" <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > Date: Thursday, May 3, 2012, 2:48 PM
>> > > > NASA's latest solar maximum
>> > > > prediction:
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > N
>> >
>> >
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