[IRCA] Fw: ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, May 18, 2007 10:26 AM
Subject: ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP21
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  May 18, 2007
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> This week saw a rise in sunspot numbers, with the average daily
> value up over 11 points to 29.3.  On Wednesday, May 16, the daily
> sunspot number was 56, the highest daily reading since 162 days
> earlier on December 5, 2006, when the sunspot number was 59.  This
> week's average sunspot number was the highest since the reporting
> week of January 4-10, 2007.
> 
> Keep in mind that a tremendous day-to-day variation in sunspot
> numbers is normal, so this should not be seen as an indicator that
> sunspot trends have turned around, and are already into Cycle 24.
> Of course, increased activity may follow; this just isn't an
> indicator that higher sunspot numbers are due in the very near term.
> 
> The bottom of the cycle, late last year predicted for the past
> couple of months, has moved out as far as a year in the most recent
> general consensus of the scientific community.  With predictions
> revised so often, it would be useful to keep an eye on each week's
> release of the Preliminary Report of Solar and Geophysical Data at,
> http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/.
> 
> Lately about once per month the report shows a revised projection of
> smoothed sunspot numbers through the next calendar year around pages
> 10-12.  The last one was in the May 1 issue, #1652.  This shows the
> minimum smoothed numbers from January to June of this year.  Compare
> this to the projection in issue #1627 from November 7, 2006, which
> had the minimum more tightly predicted to March and April of this
> year.
> 
> This week brought reports of seasonal sporadic E layer openings on
> 10 and 6 meters.
> 
> Rich Klinman, W3RJ of Coopersburg, Pennsylvania wrote on May 11
> noting that both 10 and 6 were good for him. He says, "I could
> easily work from WI to FL and WA to CA including HI to the West.
> Central and South America late in the afternoon into night. Day
> after day.  Morning until after midnight."
> 
> Bill Tackett, KN4N of Greenville, Tennessee wrote, "10 meters was W
> I D E open here Friday May 11 from East Tennessee to the North. We
> were working stations all the way to Canada mobile with good strong
> signals. It opened around 0900 DST time and stayed opened until
> around 1330 DST."
> 
> Greenville is in the Eastern Time zone, so daylight standard time
> there would be 1300-1730z.
> 
> Two weeks ago (May 4) Byron Stoesser, W7SWC was riding his bike in
> Southern Arizona and working the low end of 17 meters.  He was
> surprised to observe short and long skip contacts back-to-back,
> first with N6KN in Los Angeles, then CT1IZU in Portugal.  No word on
> the time of day, but the afternoon looks good for the path to Europe
> on that day.
> 
> For the near term, we will probably see sunspot numbers higher than
> the recent periods when it was 0 or 12, but declining a bit, with
> the next probable peak around May 25-30.  Unsettled to active
> geomagnetic conditions are forecast for the beginning of that
> period, and we may see some mildly unsettled activity around May 20.
> We are still in the right season for sporadic E propagation on 10
> and 6 meters.
> 
> Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for May 18,
> unsettled May 19 and 20, quiet May 21-23, and unsettled to active on
> May 24.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra@xxxxxxxxx
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 10 through 16 were 20, 24, 21, 18, 29, 37
> and 56 with a mean of 29.3. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 71.5, 71.4, 73.5,
> 72.9, 76.9, and 77.1, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 3, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6 and 4 with a mean of 3.4. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4 and 3, with a mean of
> 2.3.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>

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