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Re: [IRCA] Predicted Aurora
- Subject: Re: [IRCA] Predicted Aurora
- From: "CHARLES HUTTON" <charlesh3@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2006 18:52:22 +0000
John:
Here's what NOAA says. You can read the full data at
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html .
Chuck
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 18 and 19 October. Active and minor
storm periods are expected on 20 October as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 070
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/40
Minor storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/50
Minor storm 01/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
>From: "John H. Bryant" <bjohnorcas@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of
>America<irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: "irca-hard-core-dx.com" <irca@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: [IRCA] Predicted Aurora
>Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2006 10:33:58 -0700
>
>I don't usually follow these things, but the local TV news last night
>was talking about a predicted visible Aurora on Friday night in the
>Pacific NW NAm.... UTC 0000 on Saturday or later. I went on-line and
>couldn't find too much, but it does appear that there is a large
>coronal hole that is rotating around to where the ejecta stream can
>strike the earth on Friday evening or Saturday.
>
>Anyone know of a more detailed prediction???
>
>Guy Atkins and I are headed for Grayland tomorrow at dawn.... Not
>sure whether an aurora would be good or bad.
>
>JOhn B.
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