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Re: [IRCA] TA carriers

--- Begin Message --- 
 Hi Neil,
Just out of curiosity, are you using a cumulative probability analysis for your predictions? It's great stuff!
Thanks and 73,
Craig BarnesWheat Ridge, CO
    On Saturday, October 20, 2018, 5:07:33 AM MDT, Mauno Ritola <Mauno.Ritola@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:  
 
 G1 storm warning was removed at 0000 UT and we had quite good 
propagation from Finland to North America. Now at 1200 Asia sounds 
surprisingly poor.

Mauno


Nick Hall-Patch kirjoitti 19.10.2018 klo 18:43:
> So far, Neil's prediction service has been working far better than 
> anything NOAA has been offering, hi.
>
> Here's the 3-day prediction from NOAA
>
>
>> NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Oct - 21 Oct
>> ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ Oct 19ÂÂÂ Oct 20ÂÂÂ Oct 21
>> 00-03UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 3ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 3ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>> 03-06UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 3ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 3ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 3
>> 06-09UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 3ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>> 09-12UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>> 12-15UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>> 15-18UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 4ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>> 18-21UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 5ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>> 21-00UTÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 4ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2ÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2
>
>
> Now, of course, anything might happen, but so far on the 18th and 
> 19th, we have had the biggest run of K=0 in I don't know how long.
>
> How is it done Neil? Entrails of a sheep? (of an HQ180?)
>
> best wishes,
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> ÂÂÂ At 11:12 2018-10-19, Mauno Ritola wrote:
>> This warning has been on since yesterday 1500 UTC:
>>
>>> Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
>>> Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
>>
>> 73, Mauno
>>
>>
>> Neil Kazaross kirjoitti 19.10.2018 klo 5:54:
>>> A and K are low and forecast to remain so for a while. I need to set 
>>> up for
>>> TA's here tomorrow and to put Colin's Phaser thru a final test before I
>>> send it back to Nick.
>>>
>>> 73 KAZ still trying to eek out enough audio to ID a few more Aussies 
>>> from
>>> this wonderful morning in Barrington IL.
>>>
>>> On Thu, Oct 18, 2018 at 9:33 PM R. Colin Newell 
>>> <coffeecanuck@xxxxxxxxx>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> No less than 35 carriers audible, 3-4 with audio... 0233 UTC
>>>>
>>>> Colin Newell - Victoria - B.C. CANADA -
>>>>
>>>>> On Oct 18, 2018, at 6:58 PM, Nigel Pimblett <nige2730@xxxxxxxxx> 
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Had Farda on 1575 with audio at 0150, and bits of audio also noted on
>>>> 864 a few minutes ago.
>>>>> 1413 has quite consistent audio.
>>>>>
>>>>> 73,
>>>>>
>>>>> Nigel Pimblett
>>>>> Dunmore, ABOn 10/18/2018 7:46 PM, R. Colin Newell wrote:
>>>>>> Yup - a dozen carriers... 1089 being the best - although 1386 was
>>>> shining bright briefly.
>>>>>> Colin Newell - Victoria - B.C. CANADA -
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Oct 18, 2018, at 5:54 PM, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Weak TA carriers, mainly, it appears, from British transmitters,
>>>> showing up at 0045UT, a half hour before our local sunset in Victoria.
>>>>>>> best wishes,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Nick
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Nick Hall-Patch
>>>>>>> Victoria, BC
>>>>>>> Canada
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> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada _______________________________________________
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