Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: Sunspots and Cosmic Rays (spaceweather.com)

[Russ Edmunds <wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>]

Another article I saw this week contained a graphic showing that tthe
decline in sunspots was already faster than the predictions, even now with
2+ years to go to the projected bottom.

Russ Edmunds
15 mi NW Phila
Grid FN20id
<wb2bjh@xxxxxxxxx>

AM: Modified Sony ICF2010's (4) barefoot w/whip
FM: Yamaha T-80 & T-85, each w/ Conrad RDS Decoder;
Onkyo T-450RDS; Tecsun PL-310 ( 4);
modified Sony ICF2010's (3) w/APS9B @ 15';
modified Sony ICF2010 w/whip


On Fri, Nov 18, 2016 at 8:20 PM, Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> (from the Topband List)
>
> An interesting observation on looking at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/produ
> cts/solar-cycle-progression is that in spite of declining sunspot numbers
> we have been seeing continuing high Ap indices, and considerably higher
> than during the sunspot maximum.   (and the morning TP reports from
> anywhere outside Alaska attest to that)
>
> I seem to recall that there can be a blip in declining Ap indices after
> sunspot maximums, but this is some blip.   Of  course, it was also a pretty
> weak sunspot maximum also.
>
>
> best wishes,
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
> *The following is from today's **http://spaceweather.com/
>> <http://spaceweather.com/> page.  Graphics will probably not appear but
>> you
>> can see them if you click the link above.*
>>
>> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
>>
>>
>> *SUNSPOT CYCLE AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 5 YEARS: *The sun has looked remarkably
>> blank lately, with few dark cores interrupting the featureless solar disk.
>> This is a sign that Solar Minimum is coming.  Indeed, sunspot counts have
>> just reached their lowest level since 2011. With respect to the sunspot
>> cycle, you are here:
>>
>> <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
>>
>> The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between
>> periods
>> of high and low sunspot number every 11 years. These data from NOAA show
>> that the pendulum is swinging toward low sunspot numbers even faster than
>> expected. (The red line is the forecast; black dots are actual
>> measurements.). Given the current progression, forecasters expect the
>> cycle
>> to bottom out with a deep Solar Minimum in 2019-2020.
>>
>> Solar Minimum is widely misunderstood.  Many people think it brings a
>> period of dull quiet. In fact, space weather changes in interesting ways.
>> For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun decreases, the
>> upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows space junk to
>> accumulate around our planet. Also,the heliosphere
>> <http://helios.gsfc.nasa.gov/heliosph.html> shrinks, bringing
>> interstellar
>> space closer to Earth; galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar
>> system *and our atmosphere* with relative ease. (More on this below.)
>> Meanwhile, geomagnetic storms and auroras will continue--caused mainly by
>> solar wind streams instead of CMEs. Indeed, Solar Minimum is coming, but
>> it
>> won't be dull.
>>
>> Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery <http://spaceweathergallery.com/>
>>
>> *COSMIC RAYS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY: *As the sunspot cycle declines, we
>> expect cosmic rays to increase. Is this actually happening? The answer is
>> "yes." Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have
>> been
>> monitoring radiation levels in the stratosphere with frequent
>> high-altitude
>> balloon flights
>> <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016SW001410/abstract> over
>> California. Here are the latest results, current as of Nov. 11, 2016:
>>
>> <http://spaceweather.com/images2016/16nov16/stratosphere_
>> 11nov16.png?PHPSESSID=2boqpuphk9qjdfa6mrru43djg6>
>>
>> Data show that cosmic ray levels are intensifying with an 11% increase
>> since March 2015.
>>
>> Cosmic rays are high-energy photons and subatomic particles accelerated in
>> our direction by distant supernovas and other violent events in the Milky
>> Way. Usually, cosmic rays are held at bay by the sun's magnetic field,
>> which envelops and protects all the planets in the Solar System. But the
>> sun's magnetic shield is weakening as the solar cycle shifts from Solar
>> Max
>> to Solar Minimum. As the sunspot cycle goes down, cosmic rays go up.
>>
>> The sensors we send to the stratosphere measure X-rays and gamma-rays
>> which
>> are produced by the crash of primary cosmic rays into Earth's atmosphere.
>> In this way we are able to track increasing levels of radiation. The
>> increase is expected to continue for years to come as solar activity
>> plunges toward a deep Solar Minimum in 2019-2020.
>>
>> Recently, we have expanded the scope of our measurements beyond California
>> with launch sites in three continents: North America, South America and
>> soon above the Arctic Circle in Europe. This Intercontinental Space
>> Weather
>> Balloon Network
>> <http://news.spaceweather.com/intercontinental-space-weather
>> -balloon-network/>
>> will
>> allow us to probe the variable protection we receive from Earth's magnetic
>> field and atmosphere as a function of location around the globe.
>>
>> Our work is completely crowd-funded. Everyone who sponsors a balloon
>> flight
>> or buys an item from the Earth to Sky store
>> <http://earthtosky.net/shop> contributes
>> to this important body of knowledge. Thanks!
>> _________________
>> Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband
>>
>
> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada
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