[HCDX] X4.1 FLARE PEAK 0952 UTC 17-I-2005

[nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx]

Flare update - 0952 UTC

The entire HF spectrum is shut-down at the time of this e-mail, on the  
sunlit side of the Earth.  Recovery time is 1 hour, 37 minutes (approx.  
1130 UTC).  The flare from region 720 has maxed out at X4.1 (GEOS) (IPS  
reports X3.8).  The rise time was nearly two hours in length.  It is too  
early for me to tell if there is a signature radio sweep, though there  
might be a hint of a precursor.  I will issue an update if a CME has been  
detected.

In the meantime, the solar wind speed remains above 600 km/s, and it is  
anticipated that the Kp index will rise.  It is possible that we will yet  
see the major to severe geomagnetic storm.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 :

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