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[HCDX] Coronal Mass Ejection detected: Major Geomagnetic Storm Predicted
NW7US Propagation Update (15 January 2005 0840 UTC)
During the series of flares from solar sunspot region 0720, at 0614 UTC 15
January 2005, a strong solar flare and radio sweep event was observed.
This indicates a full-halo coronal mass ejection (one that is headed
directly toward Earth). The start time of this Type II burst was 0554 UTC
15 January 2005. The shock speed is estimated at 1300 km/s - this is a
MAJOR SHOCK. An extremely strong Type IV event followed the Type II
event. The sweep looks optically correlated with the flare from region
0720. (To see the sweep, browse to
http://prop.hfradio.org/ips_type2event-20050115.gif (IPS))
The way this is shaped (PARALLEL RIBBON), a proton event is indicated that
may begin in coming hours. Energetic solar proton events adversely impact
tran-polar HF propagation circuits. This level of event may well span
into middle latitudes.
It is now expected that the start of January 16 will see strong
geomagnetic storminess, increasing to MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC storminess, then
declining late on January 17 to active levels. This could well be a major
Aurora event, as well. *STRONGLY DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED* from 16 January through 17 January 2005.
Additional details will be reported when available.
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 :
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