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[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/LF/MF RX Prop Outlook Update #2004-004A
KN4LF Daily HF/LF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook Update #2004-004A
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
http://dayton.akorn.net/pipermail/propagation
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Sunday 11/28/2004 At 2330 UTC Valid Through 12/02 2004
Large and growing coronal hole #129 has been in geoeffective (Earth facing) position since Friday 11/26/04. During it's last reincarnation as coronal hole #122 on 10/31/04, it produced a maximum Kp of 4 (active) and a maximum Ap of 22 (active). Because of it's rapid growth and large size it's impact on the geomagnetic field will probably be more significant this time around.
Therefore I'm now predicting minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5), with periods of moderate geomagnetic storming (Kp-6) between UTC 11/29/04- 10/02/04.
Prolific sunspot group #10696 rose around the east limb of the Sun on Saturday 11/27/04. So far this group is pretty quiet and stable and let's hope it stays that way.
Therefore the chance of daylight radio blackouts from solar flares is reduced from medium to low.
And the chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) continues low.
GLOBAL LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor To Fair
Nighttime- Poor
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good Becoming Fair
High Latitude- Fair Becoming Poor
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND,
160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be fair to good.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good to fair.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be poor to fair.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be poor to fair.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer available.
http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp;jsessionid=70301187101071113657379
During the 7 day outlook period there will be "moderate lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and a building El Nino.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "very low to low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and a building El Nino.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space and Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@xxxxxxxx
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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