[HCDX] LF/MF/HF Propagation Outlook

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Back on the 12/02/03 I said: Recurrent Coronal Hole #071 will become
geoeffective beginning on 12/5/03. As #066 on 11/9-14/03 it produced a Kp of
6 (moderate geomagnetic storm) and I expect at least a Kp of 5 (minor
geomagnetic storming) this time around.

Well the high speed solar wind stream from recurrent Coronal Hole #071
arrived today and related minor Kp-5 to moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming
began around 0300 UTC. As #071 is very large it will remain geoeffective
(Earth facing) for four or five more days. This means pretty consistent
geomagnetic storming for the same period of time with occasional lesser
active Kp-4 periods.

With geomagnetic storming you see a lowering of the F2 layer maximum usable
frequency (MUF), with the high bands impacted first. Before the storm began,
even with the Solar Flux at under 100 I was hearing some signals yesterday
on the 10 meter amateur band. Today nothing on 10 meters and weak signals on
15/13 meters, proof that the theory is correct.

However not all is lost on shortwave. With the low solar flux at under 100,
the low background x-ray flux at B1.2, the ongoing geomagnetic storming not
presently impacting lower shortwave frequencies and also no current elevated
energetic proton event >10 MeV (10+o) in progress, D layer ionization is
weaker then it has been lately.

Therefore I'm able to receive R. Rebelde on 5025 kc in Cuba, AFRTS on 5446.5
kc in Key West, WTJC/WBOH on 5920 kc in North Carolina, the Dominican
Republic on 6025 kc and CFRX 6070 kc in Canada, all with good signal levels
at local noon here in Central Florida.

Also yesterday evening I was able to recover a readable signal from R.
Mauritania on 4845 kc at 2035 UTC, two plus hours before my local sunset of
2232 UTC and the 160 meter amateur band opened up at 2130 UTC, with the MF
AM broadcast band opening up at 2140 UTC. I also noticed earlier this
morning that propagation was still strong on the 80 meter amateur band as
late as 1600 UTC.

Unfortunately though we will see poor north to south propagation (we call it
auroral) on the MF AM broadcast band, also on high latitude E-W propagations
paths.

On the LF band we will see enhanced daytime propagation conditions via the D
layer and degraded propagation conditions at night.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode E Group
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840
160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
Friend Website Design Studio http://www.kn4lf.com





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