[HCDX] Our First CME Has Arrived
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[HCDX] Our First CME Has Arrived

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived this morning at 0520 UTC, expelled
from huge sunspot group #10501 (old #10484) now located at N04E61. As the Bz
component of the Earth's magnetic field was negative, the CME triggered
minor Kp-5 to moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming. It is the first of what
will be many CME's expelled from #10501 in future days, which already
possesses a complicated beta-gamma magnetic signature. By the way Sunspot
Group #'s 10486 and 10488 will rotate into view around the Sun's east limb
on November 18, 2003 and promise to wreak further havoc. Here is a GONG
acoustic image of them as of yesterday
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2003/12nov03/midi_farside_strip.gif .

LF and high latitude MF and HF propagation paths still have not recovered
from the two week bombardment in October 2003. As a matter of fact I have
yet to log the LF broadcast band stations from Europe and Africa this
season, very unusual.

We should continue to see nonexistent to very poor propagation conditions on
LF, poor high latitude propagation conditions on MF and poor to fair high
latitude HF conditions, with good to fair mid and low latitude HF
conditions.

For those curious or interested in LF propagation check out this website
from Alan Melia G3NYK at http://www.alan.melia.btinternet.co.uk/latest.htm .
Alan is conducting continuous propagation study on VLF/LF.

Also check out the latest bulletin below from the SIDC in Belgium.

:Issued: 2003 Nov 15 1147 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/xut
#---------------------------------------------------------------------------
---#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
#
#---------------------------------------------------------------------------
---#

GEOALERT BRU319
UGEOA 30512 31115 1230/ 9930/
11152 22152 30152
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Nov 2003 until 17 Nov
2003
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2003  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 037
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2003  10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 061
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2003  10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 054
COMMENT: Signatures of a possible shock arrival are seen in ACE-data: the
solar
wind speed jumped from 600 to 750 km/s, the temperature increased suddenly
from
2 105 to 8 105 K. The transversal component of the interplanetary magnetic
field
jumped to a higher positive value, while the horizontal component turned
negative (-10nT). This event can trigger a magnetic storm. In the coming
hours,
the K index can possible reach values as high as 5 and 6: minor to major
storm
conditions are expected. The Earth is still under the influence of an
elevated
coronal hole wind stream.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode E Group:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840
160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Friend Website Design:  http://www.kn4lf.com





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