[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Bulletin - 2-XI-2003

[Tomas (NW7US) <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

At 1725Z 2-XI-2003 an X8.3 flare occurred.  A strong radio blackout occurred.  
The flare was from region 486, and a proton event commenced by 1800Z.  All high-
energy fluxes exceeded the threshold used to determine a proton event.  A polar 
cap absorption event (PCA) is in progress.  A type II radio burst was observed, 
indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was related to this flare.  A partial 
halo (meaning that it is not squarly directed at Earth) CME was visible at 
1730Z.  This CME will only glance us, but to what degree is in question.  
Forecasts call for about a Kp level of 5 when it arrives.  The CME will glance 
us sometime late on 3-XI-2003 to early 5-XI-2003.  Currently, our elevated Kp 
index is due to a small equatorial coronal hole.  Flux is still high enough to 
support some F-layer propagation on low VHF and the high HF frequenies.  The low 
bands will suffer somewhat due to the elevated geomagnetic activity.

Region 486 and 488 are rotating around the western limb of the sun by 5-XI-2003, 
and things should quiet down somewhat.  Until then, some additional flare 
activity is possible.  The coronal hole activity, however, will continue.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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