[HCDX] Re: [SWL] NW7US Propagation Bulletin - 2-XI-2003

["Duane Fischer, W8DBF" <dfischer@xxxxxxxx>]

Tomas, 	
	
What I would like to know is: 	
	
Nothing physical is infinite. How long can a class M star, such as our sun, blow
pieces of itself out before it collapses? Nothing replaces what is lost. Matter
is converted to energy, but that energy does not remain with the star. It is
radiated in various ways and forever lost to the star. Granted the sun is much
larger than the Earth, but when you blow pices out three times the size of the
Earth, and other smaller pieces, over a few billion years, it seems to me that
the sun is going to run out in a lot less time than another four billion years
as some predict.    	
	
Which raises the question: does anyone 'really' know how large the physical core
of our sun is and how much actual matter is lost in these solar flares? 	
	
Duane W8DBF 	


----------
From: NW7US <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: SWARL <SWARL@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; SWBC <swbc@xxxxxxxxxx>; SWL
<swl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; SWL and Ham DX Club
<hamradioandshortwavedxclub@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; SW - TheBasicsOfShortwave
<thebasicsofshortwave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: CQ_Contesting <CQ-Contest@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Hard-Core-DX
<hard-core-dx@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [SWL] NW7US Propagation Bulletin - 2-XI-2003
Date: Sunday, November 02, 2003 6:57 PM

At 1725Z 2-XI-2003 an X8.3 flare occurred.  A strong radio blackout occurred.  
The flare was from region 486, and a proton event commenced by 1800Z.  All high-
energy fluxes exceeded the threshold used to determine a proton event.  A polar 
cap absorption event (PCA) is in progress.  A type II radio burst was observed, 
indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was related to this flare.  A partial 
halo (meaning that it is not squarly directed at Earth) CME was visible at 
1730Z.  This CME will only glance us, but to what degree is in question.  
Forecasts call for about a Kp level of 5 when it arrives.  The CME will glance 
us sometime late on 3-XI-2003 to early 5-XI-2003.  Currently, our elevated Kp 
index is due to a small equatorial coronal hole.  Flux is still high enough to 
support some F-layer propagation on low VHF and the high HF frequenies.  The low

bands will suffer somewhat due to the elevated geomagnetic activity.

Region 486 and 488 are rotating around the western limb of the sun by 5-XI-2003,

and things should quiet down somewhat.  Until then, some additional flare 
activity is possible.  The coronal hole activity, however, will continue.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
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